Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-11-04?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 74¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 4

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 77%

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

-$52.85

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 73.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares7,966

Combined PnL+$10.56

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares6,506

Combined PnL-$63.4

No — 77%Yes — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Noavg 73¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$0.04	54% 1184-1019 (2203)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 27.4¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$58.89	71% 7086-2836 (9922)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 74¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$20.84	50% 27753-27615 (55368)
NM NM-P	Noavg 73¢	$777.8	$784.18	+$6.38	46% 1300-1520 (2820)
GC GC-P	Noavg 73¢	$1.0K	$740.6	+$4.89	47% 1327-1519 (2846)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 72.3¢	$464.82	$469.5	+$4.68	51% 1087-1033 (2120)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 72¢	$318.32	$322.76	+$4.43	51% 24195-22931 (47126)
CA Cannae	Noavg 70¢	$211.18	$220.19	+$9.01	53% 16506-14658 (31164)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 72¢	$95.75	$70.38	+$1.44	52% 1138-1033 (2171)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$37.15	$32.2	-$4.33	48% 59185-63178 (122363)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 71.5¢	$16.8	$17.16	+$0.36	51% 7646-7363 (15009)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 68¢	$2.13	$2.28	+$0.16	58% 19331-14228 (33559)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.3	-$0.18	52% 8571-7810 (16381)

Limousin

Invested

$1,746.89

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$0.04

Record

54%

1184-1019 (2203)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,748.83

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$58.89

Record

71%

7086-2836 (9922)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,564.65

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$20.84

Record

50%

27753-27615 (55368)

NM-P

Invested

$777.8

Value

$784.18

PnL

+$6.38

Record

46%

1300-1520 (2820)

GC-P

Invested

$1,005.7

Value

$740.6

PnL

+$4.89

Record

47%

1327-1519 (2846)

MadridTime

Invested

$464.82

Value

$469.5

PnL

+$4.68

Record

51%

1087-1033 (2120)

Flaznorp

Invested

$318.32

Value

$322.76

PnL

+$4.43

Record

51%

24195-22931 (47126)

Cannae

Invested

$211.18

Value

$220.19

PnL

+$9.01

Record

53%

16506-14658 (31164)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$95.75

Value

$70.38

PnL

+$1.44

Record

52%

1138-1033 (2171)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.15

Value

$32.2

PnL

-$4.33

Record

48%

59185-63178 (122363)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$16.8

Value

$17.16

PnL

+$0.36

Record

51%

7646-7363 (15009)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$2.13

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0.16

Record

58%

19331-14228 (33559)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$0.18

Record

52%

8571-7810 (16381)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.