Will PSV win on 2026-11-04?

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (65%) · No at 51¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 4

Yes50¢No50¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 65%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.5K

Combined PnL

-$58.68

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 50.5¢

+0% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 17 top traders (65%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares24,879

Combined PnL-$236.24

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares5,235

Combined PnL+$177.55

No — 65%Yes — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

84% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 86% · 7

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 50.7¢	$7.6K	$4.5K	-$53.89	58% 45420-32909 (78329)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 50.7¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$38.83	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
└ No leg	Noavg 50.7¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$72.24
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48.3¢	$720.53	$753.94	+$33.42
DV dv-pm	Noavg 50¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$26.42	49% 3292-3422 (6714)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Yesavg 49.8¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$11.59	71% 7095-2847 (9942)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49.8¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$9.95
└ No leg	Noavg 49¢	$703.72	$725.26	+$21.54
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Yesavg 47¢	$5.0K	$2.5K	+$176.17	54% 1208-1030 (2238)
LI Limousin	Noavg 51.2¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$97.66	54% 1184-1023 (2207)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 50.1¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$16.82	39% 1335-2099 (3434)
└ No leg	Noavg 50.1¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$11.82
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49¢	$490	$495	+$5
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 50.1¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$16	46% 1301-1520 (2821)
└ No leg	Noavg 50.1¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$11
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49¢	$490	$495	+$5
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 50.6¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$32.56	50% 27765-27628 (55393)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 50.6¢	$2.0K	$1.1K	-$15.33	48% 59224-63218 (122442)
└ No leg	Noavg 50.6¢	$703.97	$702.62	-$11.22
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$411.5	$407.39	-$4.12
FO forecastication4	Noavg 50¢	$665.5	$652.19	-$13.31	50% 1337-1356 (2693)
HI hi774c	Noavg 50¢	$594.87	$582.97	-$5.95	50% 4958-4886 (9844)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Noavg 50.4¢	$140.4	$141.06	+$0.66	53% 16515-14663 (31178)
└ No leg	Noavg 50.4¢	$105.7	$106.01	+$0.31
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49¢	$34.69	$35.05	+$0.35
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 50¢	$89.98	$88.18	-$0.9	49% 14322-14999 (29321)
PU purplegatto<$100	Noavg 51.2¢	$83.54	$79.87	-$0.82	49% 6195-6328 (12523)
nigiri99<$100	Noavg 51.2¢	$83.54	$79.87	-$3.67	46% 8405-9865 (18270)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Noavg 51¢	$56.98	$58.45	+$1.48	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46¢	$27.09	$29.74	+$2.65
└ No leg	Noavg 51¢	$29.89	$28.71	-$1.17
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 50¢	$50	$49	-$1	47% 11065-12394 (23459)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$42.18	$42.61	+$0.42	64% 1890-1047 (2937)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 48.3¢	$27.53	$28.79	+$1.25	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$18	$17.82	-$0.18	48% 7278-7769 (15047)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 49.7¢	$15.72	$15.5	-$0.06	50% 25480-25186 (50666)
41 0x4161...e71dCTR<$100	Yesavg 52.2¢	$10.25	$9.9	-$0.34	—
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.53	+$0.23	52% 8574-7820 (16394)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$7,617.04

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$53.89

Record

58%

45420-32909 (78329)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$2,932.41

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$38.83

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

Both legs:

No$2,211.8850.7¢-$72.24

Yes$720.5348.3¢+$33.42

dv-pm

Invested

$2,642.24

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$26.42

Record

49%

3292-3422 (6714)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,558.04

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$11.59

Record

71%

7095-2847 (9942)

Both legs:

Yes$1,854.3249.8¢-$9.95

No$703.7249¢+$21.54

rabbitfoot1CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,033.34

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$176.17

Record

54%

1208-1030 (2238)

Limousin

Invested

$2,224.4

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$97.66

Record

54%

1184-1023 (2207)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,886.24

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$16.82

Record

39%

1335-2099 (3434)

Both legs:

No$1,396.2450.1¢+$11.82

Yes$49049¢+$5

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,859.43

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$16

Record

46%

1301-1520 (2821)

Both legs:

No$1,369.4350.1¢+$11

Yes$49049¢+$5

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,565.24

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$32.56

Record

50%

27765-27628 (55393)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$1,951.84

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$15.33

Record

48%

59224-63218 (122442)

Both legs:

No$703.9750.6¢-$11.22

Yes$411.550¢-$4.12

forecastication4

Invested

$665.5

Value

$652.19

PnL

-$13.31

Record

50%

1337-1356 (2693)

hi774c

Invested

$594.87

Value

$582.97

PnL

-$5.95

Record

50%

4958-4886 (9844)

CannaeARB<$100

Invested

$140.4

Value

$141.06

PnL

+$0.66

Record

53%

16515-14663 (31178)

Both legs:

No$105.750.4¢+$0.31

Yes$34.6949¢+$0.35

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$89.98

Value

$88.18

PnL

-$0.9

Record

49%

14322-14999 (29321)

purplegatto<$100

Invested

$83.54

Value

$79.87

PnL

-$0.82

Record

49%

6195-6328 (12523)

nigiri99<$100

Invested

$83.54

Value

$79.87

PnL

-$3.67

Record

46%

8405-9865 (18270)

ghorrockARB<$100

Invested

$56.98

Value

$58.45

PnL

+$1.48

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

Both legs:

Yes$27.0946¢+$2.65

No$29.8951¢-$1.17

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$50

Value

$49

PnL

-$1

Record

47%

11065-12394 (23459)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.18

Value

$42.61

PnL

+$0.42

Record

64%

1890-1047 (2937)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.53

Value

$28.79

PnL

+$1.25

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18

Value

$17.82

PnL

-$0.18

Record

48%

7278-7769 (15047)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$15.72

Value

$15.5

PnL

-$0.06

Record

50%

25480-25186 (50666)

0x4161...e71dCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.25

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$0.34

Record

—

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.23

Record

52%

8574-7820 (16394)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

11 of 17 top traders (65%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

84% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 86% · 7

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.