Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?

22 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (96%) · Yes at 98¢ · $87K held · ends Nov 3

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 96%

Total Value

$87.1K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

95¢ → 97.7¢

+3% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

22 of 23 top traders (96%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes22 traders

Total Value$87.1K

Total Shares89,142

Combined PnL+$2.3K

No1 trader

Total Value$43.31

Total Shares1,804

Combined PnL-$28.3

Yes — 96%No — 4%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

95% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 13

Aligned

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 92% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
elmcap2	Yesavg 95.8¢	$35.0K	$34.2K	+$652.69	89% 1665-205 (1870)
VI Vilgefortz	Yesavg 97¢	$14.2K	$14.3K	+$106.51	71% 196-82 (278)
TR Trump2028	Yesavg 95.1¢	$11.1K	$11.4K	+$298.36	82% 402-89 (491)
DZ dzsibenaja	Yesavg 94.9¢	$7.6K	$7.8K	+$220.87	88% 171-24 (195)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Yesavg 91.4¢	$3.0K	$3.2K	+$209.25	58% 38452-27536 (65988)
ImJustKen	Yesavg 87.6¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$249.61	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
AngryRhino	Yesavg 93¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$113.71	69% 133-59 (192)
wish-	Yesavg 96.4¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$25.6	79% 1176-319 (1495)
QM QMG-CORE	Yesavg 94.1¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$66.35	77% 1408-416 (1824)
IN insidero	Yesavg 95¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$43.86	76% 291-93 (384)
Donny.T	Yesavg 86.4¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$185	72% 484-187 (671)
VO Votei14Voude22	Yesavg 97.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$1.82	78% 341-99 (440)
TH TheFOMCGambler	Yesavg 88.3¢	$759.74	$840.6	+$80.43	76% 102-32 (134)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 97¢	$848.21	$746.03	-$5.99	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
Seutervoinen	Yesavg 92¢	$475.6	$504.83	+$28.97	85% 311-57 (368)
nicoco89	Yesavg 80.4¢	$246.33	$293.12	+$46.78	65% 1075-583 (1658)
RO rocky42019	Yesavg 96¢	$291.15	$292.82	+$1.67	42% 1725-2358 (4083)
probability	Yesavg 94.7¢	$133.41	$137.65	+$4.24	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
HO HotDogs<$100	Yesavg 86¢	$82.98	$94.27	+$11.29	94% 442-28 (470)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Noavg 3.8¢	$50.81	$43.31	-$28.3	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 97.3¢	$51.68	$27.36	+$0.23	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Yesavg 86.8¢	$10.69	$12.03	+$1.34	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
DEGENKHAN<$100	Yesavg 89.4¢	$4.9	$4.89	-$0.02	66% 1107-565 (1672)

elmcap2

Yes

Invested

$35,019.01

Value

$34.2K

PnL

+$652.69

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

Vilgefortz

Yes

Invested

$14,157.86

Value

$14.3K

PnL

+$106.51

Record

71%

196-82 (278)

Trump2028

Yes

Invested

$11,099.35

Value

$11.4K

PnL

+$298.36

Record

82%

402-89 (491)

dzsibenaja

Yes

Invested

$7,607.06

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$220.87

Record

88%

171-24 (195)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Yes

Invested

$3,020

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$209.25

Record

58%

38452-27536 (65988)

ImJustKen

Yes

Invested

$2,385.2

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$249.61

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

AngryRhino

Yes

Invested

$2,274.28

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$113.71

Record

69%

133-59 (192)

wish-

Yes

Invested

$1,928.4

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$25.6

Record

79%

1176-319 (1495)

QMG-CORE

Yes

Invested

$1,774.71

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$66.35

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

insidero

Yes

Invested

$1,572.26

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$43.86

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

Donny.T

Yes

Invested

$1,411.48

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$185

Record

72%

484-187 (671)

Votei14Voude22

Yes

Invested

$1,384

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$1.82

Record

78%

341-99 (440)

TheFOMCGambler

Yes

Invested

$759.74

Value

$840.6

PnL

+$80.43

Record

76%

102-32 (134)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$848.21

Value

$746.03

PnL

-$5.99

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

Seutervoinen

Yes

Invested

$475.6

Value

$504.83

PnL

+$28.97

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

nicoco89

Yes

Invested

$246.33

Value

$293.12

PnL

+$46.78

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

rocky42019

Yes

Invested

$291.15

Value

$292.82

PnL

+$1.67

Record

42%

1725-2358 (4083)

probability

Yes

Invested

$133.41

Value

$137.65

PnL

+$4.24

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

HotDogs<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.98

Value

$94.27

PnL

+$11.29

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Invested

$50.81

Value

$43.31

PnL

-$28.3

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.68

Value

$27.36

PnL

+$0.23

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.69

Value

$12.03

PnL

+$1.34

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

DEGENKHAN<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.89

PnL

-$0.02

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

22 of 23 top traders (96%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

95% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 13

Aligned

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 92% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.