Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 81¢ · $79K held · ends Apr 19, 2027

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Mon, Apr 19, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$78.9K

Combined PnL

$3.2K

Smart Money Entry

86.4¢ → 81¢

-6% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 81%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$64.6K

Total Shares79,828

Combined PnL$-4.1K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$14.4K

Total Shares74,848

Combined PnL+$7.3K

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL flawfence	Noavg 86.4¢	$44.9K	$42.1K	$-2.8K	46% 271-319 (590)
LaMecheMoonCTR	Yesavg 10.8¢	$273.06	$13.4K	+$6.5K	48% 33-36 (69)
TBill1	Noavg 86.9¢	$26.3K	$6.6K	-$310.92	45% 154-188 (342)
archaic	Noavg 85.4¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	-$158.86	85% 1906-339 (2245)
mountaindewd	Noavg 86¢	$4.3K	$4.0K	-$263.03	54% 344-290 (634)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Noavg 90.4¢	$4.5K	$4.0K	-$475.49	58% 38452-27536 (65988)
vinii	Noavg 79.9¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$18.35	74% 2792-1003 (3795)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 88.6¢	$1.1K	$984.68	-$102.49	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$55.5	$576	+$520.5	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
Donny.T	Noavg 84.5¢	$505.5	$498.32	-$7.17	72% 484-187 (671)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.15	$207.54	+$238.05	39% 1780-2832 (4612)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR	Yesavg 15.3¢	$84.96	$107.38	+$20.39	69% 156-69 (225)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$38.98	$38.98	+$37.29	7% 14-187 (201)

flawfence

Invested

$44,865.97

Value

$42.1K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

LaMecheMoonCTR

Yes

Invested

$273.06

Value

$13.4K

PnL

+$6.5K

Record

48%

33-36 (69)

TBill1

Invested

$26,253.04

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$310.92

Record

45%

154-188 (342)

archaic

Invested

$4,734.54

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$158.86

Record

85%

1906-339 (2245)

mountaindewd

Invested

$4,308.6

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$263.03

Record

54%

344-290 (634)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$4,517.99

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$475.49

Record

58%

38452-27536 (65988)

vinii

Invested

$1,758.15

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$18.35

Record

74%

2792-1003 (3795)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$1,087.18

Value

$984.68

PnL

-$102.49

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$55.5

Value

$576

PnL

+$520.5

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

Donny.T

Invested

$505.5

Value

$498.32

PnL

-$7.17

Record

72%

484-187 (671)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$207.54

PnL

+$238.05

Record

39%

1780-2832 (4612)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR

Yes

Invested

$84.96

Value

$107.38

PnL

+$20.39

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.98

Value

$38.98

PnL

+$37.29

Record

14-187 (201)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 81%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.6%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.