Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 99¢ · $34K held · ends Nov 3

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$33.7K

Combined PnL

$377.98

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 98.6¢

+2% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$33.6K

Total Shares34,198

Combined PnL+$532.92

No4 traders

Total Value$101.71

Total Shares6,562

Combined PnL-$154.94

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

3178h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI Vilgefortz	Yesavg 97.3¢	$11.1K	$11.2K	+$134.43	71% 196-82 (278)
QM QMG-CORE	Yesavg 96.9¢	$9.6K	$9.7K	+$140.56	77% 1408-416 (1824)
elmcap2	Yesavg 97.1¢	$5.8K	$5.7K	+$79.73	89% 1665-205 (1870)
KE Kevindoto	Yesavg 96.9¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$23.13	80% 437-110 (547)
Donny.T	Yesavg 95.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$41.28	72% 484-187 (671)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Yesavg 95¢	$950	$981	+$35	58% 38452-27536 (65988)
probability	Yesavg 94.6¢	$875.94	$915.07	+$39.13	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
bernardbulletin	Yesavg 95.6¢	$681.69	$699.43	+$19.17	69% 987-450 (1437)
IN insidero	Yesavg 96¢	$576	$588.6	+$13.8	76% 291-93 (384)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 97¢	$573.11	$579.38	+$6.27	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
KU kukubaja	Yesavg 98.1¢	$257.68	$257.72	+$0.43	84% 516-99 (615)
CO cowcatCTR	Noavg 5.2¢	$159.9	$49.15	-$113.63	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Noavg 3¢	$88.01	$46.13	-$38.84	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
DEGENKHAN<$100	Yesavg 98.5¢	$4.93	$4.9	-$0.01	66% 1107-565 (1672)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Noavg 3.5¢	$6.51	$3.95	-$2.56	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
SF sfkjbsr457CTR<$100	Noavg 1.5¢	$2.4	$2.48	+$0.08	54% 8322-7007 (15329)

Vilgefortz

Yes

Invested

$11,138.6

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$134.43

Record

71%

196-82 (278)

QMG-CORE

Yes

Invested

$9,612.23

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$140.56

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

elmcap2

Yes

Invested

$5,798.86

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$79.73

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

Kevindoto

Yes

Invested

$1,621.6

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$23.13

Record

80%

437-110 (547)

Donny.T

Yes

Invested

$1,188.75

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$41.28

Record

72%

484-187 (671)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Yes

Invested

$950

Value

$981

PnL

+$35

Record

58%

38452-27536 (65988)

probability

Yes

Invested

$875.94

Value

$915.07

PnL

+$39.13

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

bernardbulletin

Yes

Invested

$681.69

Value

$699.43

PnL

+$19.17

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

insidero

Yes

Invested

$576

Value

$588.6

PnL

+$13.8

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$573.11

Value

$579.38

PnL

+$6.27

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

kukubaja

Yes

Invested

$257.68

Value

$257.72

PnL

+$0.43

Record

84%

516-99 (615)

cowcatCTR

Invested

$159.9

Value

$49.15

PnL

-$113.63

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Invested

$88.01

Value

$46.13

PnL

-$38.84

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

DEGENKHAN<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.93

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$0.01

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Invested

$6.51

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$2.56

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

sfkjbsr457CTR<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.08

Record

54%

8322-7007 (15329)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

3178h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.