Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on November 2?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 99¢ · $292 held · ended Nov 2

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$291.51

Combined PnL

$8.99

Smart Money Entry

95.2¢ → 98.8¢

+4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$227.33

Total Shares229

Combined PnL+$8.53

Yes2 traders

Total Value$64.18

Total Shares1,055

Combined PnL+$0.46

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock	Noavg 93.5¢	$137.71	$86.85	+$4.2	57% 17248-12904 (30152)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 94.8¢	$66.73	$69.93	+$3.19	41% 943-1365 (2308)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.9¢	$62.76	$61.92	-$0.84	53% 3389-3008 (6397)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$26.98	$27.13	+$0.15	37% 758-1274 (2032)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$19.08	$19.09	+$0	46% 1569-1829 (3398)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 96¢	$10.74	$11.11	+$0.37	35% 710-1327 (2037)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 90.5¢	$6.89	$7.53	+$0.64	50% 2042-2017 (4059)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$5.73	$5.71	-$0.02	37% 1395-2381 (3776)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$0.97	$2.27	+$1.3	60% 2354-1539 (3893)

ghorrock

Invested

$137.71

Value

$86.85

PnL

+$4.2

Record

57%

17248-12904 (30152)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$66.73

Value

$69.93

PnL

+$3.19

Record

41%

943-1365 (2308)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.76

Value

$61.92

PnL

-$0.84

Record

53%

3389-3008 (6397)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$26.98

Value

$27.13

PnL

+$0.15

Record

37%

758-1274 (2032)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$19.08

Value

$19.09

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

1569-1829 (3398)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$10.74

Value

$11.11

PnL

+$0.37

Record

35%

710-1327 (2037)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$6.89

Value

$7.53

PnL

+$0.64

Record

50%

2042-2017 (4059)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$5.73

Value

$5.71

PnL

-$0.02

Record

37%

1395-2381 (3776)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.97

Value

$2.27

PnL

+$1.3

Record

60%

2354-1539 (3893)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.