Consensus PnL $100K · win rate 74% (131–47, n=178) · hand-picked wallet · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$99.9K
Record
131W / 47L
Win Rate
74.0%
of 178 settled
Batting Avg
53.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#610
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
11,998
Markets
340
Volume
$13.8M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 5 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $19K · now 70¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $5.8K · now 65¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Yes $1.7K · now 35¢ · in at 34¢with the consensus (71% of 28)
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Yes $694 · now 55¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (50% of 12)
- Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?No $193 · now 97¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (71% of 14)
Specialties
263 settled consensus markets · held side won 79% at an average entry of 77¢- Elections
+16 pts
side won 100% of 26 · avg entry 84¢
ROI +9%
- Tech
+3 pts
side won 77% of 52 · avg entry 74¢
ROI +6%
- Crypto
+9 pts
side won 72% of 18 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 85% of 33 at an average 85¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 0% of 30)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 40% of 15)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 67% of 27)
- 70¢ and up: 73%(won 97% of 191)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.