Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (65%). 20 of 28 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?

20 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 35¢ · $79K held · ends Nov 4

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$79.2K

Combined PnL

$5.8K

Smart Money Entry

29.2¢ → 35¢

+20% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 35%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

20 of 28 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)20 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$28.6K

Total Shares42,389

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Yes20 traders

Total Value$50.6K

Total Shares144,079

Combined PnL+$7.6K

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 82% · 11

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 79% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 69% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IC ic4cream	Noavg 67.4¢	$20.1K	$19.2K	-$873.32	59% 2660-1871 (4531)
WordleAddictCTR	Yesavg 35¢	$10.5K	$10.5K	+$150	61% 941-614 (1555)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 29.9¢	$8.9K	$9.4K	+$574.27	36% 190-333 (523)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Noavg 73.7¢	$7.4K	$6.6K	-$643.14	38% 20-32 (52)
mrworldwideCTR	Yesavg 27.2¢	$4.2K	$5.4K	+$1.2K	69% 804-359 (1163)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 22.7¢	$3.4K	$5.3K	+$1.8K	40% 704-1061 (1765)
WA wan123CTR	Yesavg 20¢	$2.3K	$4.1K	+$1.8K	39% 196-304 (500)
BiDiFakePollsCTR	Yesavg 35.9¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$29.09	58% 182-132 (314)
PO poptreeCTR	Yesavg 30¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$293.96	70% 390-171 (561)
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 38.3¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$177.78	56% 836-644 (1480)
PA pantomimeCTR	Yesavg 21.6¢	$1.1K	$1.8K	+$645.09	52% 1287-1198 (2485)
twinnaCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$1.0K	$1.8K	+$726.12	50% 92-93 (185)
0X 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C29CTR	Yesavg 34¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$25	71% 215-88 (303)
HO HotDogs	Noavg 76.8¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$259.67	94% 442-28 (470)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 35¢	$951.07	$965.17	+$14.09	35% 35-64 (99)
wagwanshawtyCTR	Yesavg 33.2¢	$783.76	$827.4	+$31.82	— 10-5 (15)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$400	$700	+$310	36% 397-691 (1088)
Kickstand7CTR	Yesavg 30¢	$558.55	$660.95	+$102.4	61% 496-318 (814)
SB sbimbg	Noavg 64¢	$404.12	$410.43	+$3.16	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
88 881112	Noavg 65¢	$390	$390	+$3	37% 566-944 (1510)
ScottyNooo	Noavg 75.2¢	$419.14	$364.22	-$54.92	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
kekkoneCTR	Yesavg 28.5¢	$228	$280	+$56	73% 1124-417 (1541)
CO cowcatCTR	Yesavg 15.1¢	$97.28	$225.81	+$125.3	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
probability	Noavg 68.5¢	$96.11	$99.21	+$3.11	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
ME melonmanmCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$26.29	$46.01	+$19.06	65% 526-281 (807)

ic4cream

Invested

$20,081.87

Value

$19.2K

PnL

-$873.32

Record

59%

2660-1871 (4531)

WordleAddictCTR

Yes

Invested

$10,499.98

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$150

Record

61%

941-614 (1555)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$8,850.63

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$574.27

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

Contestable-Parfait

Invested

$7,371.95

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$643.14

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

mrworldwideCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,180.27

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,414.52

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

wan123CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,302.99

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

BiDiFakePollsCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,450.24

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$29.09

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

poptreeCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,952.07

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$293.96

Record

70%

390-171 (561)

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,448

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$177.78

Record

56%

836-644 (1480)

pantomimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,146.58

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$645.09

Record

52%

1287-1198 (2485)

twinnaCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,001.54

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$726.12

Record

50%

92-93 (185)

0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C29CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,699.99

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$25

Record

71%

215-88 (303)

HotDogs

Invested

$1,742.06

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$259.67

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$951.07

Value

$965.17

PnL

+$14.09

Record

35%

35-64 (99)

wagwanshawtyCTR

Yes

Invested

$783.76

Value

$827.4

PnL

+$31.82

Record

—

10-5 (15)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$400

Value

$700

PnL

+$310

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

Kickstand7CTR

Yes

Invested

$558.55

Value

$660.95

PnL

+$102.4

Record

61%

496-318 (814)

sbimbg

Invested

$404.12

Value

$410.43

PnL

+$3.16

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

881112

Invested

$390

Value

$390

PnL

+$3

Record

37%

566-944 (1510)

ScottyNooo

Invested

$419.14

Value

$364.22

PnL

-$54.92

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

kekkoneCTR

Yes

Invested

$228

Value

$280

PnL

+$56

Record

73%

1124-417 (1541)

cowcatCTR

Yes

Invested

$97.28

Value

$225.81

PnL

+$125.3

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

probability

Invested

$96.11

Value

$99.21

PnL

+$3.11

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

melonmanmCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.29

Value

$46.01

PnL

+$19.06

Record

65%

526-281 (807)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 35%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

20 of 28 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)20 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 82% · 11

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 79% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 69% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.9%

35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$170.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

270.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.