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10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 97¢ · $83K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$83.5K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Smart Money Entry

93.1¢ → 96.5¢

+4% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$83.2K

Total Shares85,971

Combined PnL+$2.6K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$264.56

Total Shares8,140

Combined PnL-$737.51

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

1534h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 78% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE Kevindoto	Noavg 94.6¢	$52.9K	$50.0K	+$1.1K	80% 437-110 (547)
AF aff3	Noavg 92.6¢	$13.0K	$13.6K	+$575.46	80% 171-44 (215)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA	Noavg 92.2¢	$11.0K	$11.6K	+$536.81	67% 751-378 (1129)
yen4u	Noavg 91.9¢	$3.4K	$3.6K	+$173.43	86% 809-136 (945)
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 79.6¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$10.81	77% 1408-416 (1824)
Talophex	Noavg 94.2¢	$873.68	$874.9	+$1.22	91% 929-95 (1024)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 85.8¢	$785.21	$838.22	+$86.76	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
88 881112	Noavg 67¢	$551.26	$599.47	+$48.2	38% 567-944 (1511)
0X 0xC14E1840aaAA56e12409585AD2c2a74c161339a5-1723944811003	Noavg 64¢	$256.47	$387.71	+$130.84	61% 31-20 (51)
cambridgeisaacCTR	Yesavg 5.5¢	$328.64	$194.64	-$127.98	57% 1114-837 (1951)
0X 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C29	Noavg 96.7¢	$192.43	$192.53	+$0.1	71% 215-88 (303)
Optimus-CTR	Yesavg 37¢	$484.46	$42.67	-$441.79	61% 1200-768 (1968)
0X 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR	Yesavg 30¢	$175.99	$19.13	-$156.86	79% 332-89 (421)
SlowroastedCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.6¢	$19	$8.13	-$10.87	88% 1990-279 (2269)

Kevindoto

Invested

$52,859.8

Value

$50.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

80%

437-110 (547)

aff3

Invested

$13,022.73

Value

$13.6K

PnL

+$575.46

Record

80%

171-44 (215)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA

Invested

$11,042.01

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$536.81

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

yen4u

Invested

$3,424.7

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$173.43

Record

86%

809-136 (945)

QMG-CORE

Invested

$1,460.51

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$10.81

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

Talophex

Invested

$873.68

Value

$874.9

PnL

+$1.22

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$785.21

Value

$838.22

PnL

+$86.76

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

881112

Invested

$551.26

Value

$599.47

PnL

+$48.2

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

0xC14E1840aaAA56e12409585AD2c2a74c161339a5-1723944811003

Invested

$256.47

Value

$387.71

PnL

+$130.84

Record

61%

31-20 (51)

cambridgeisaacCTR

Yes

Invested

$328.64

Value

$194.64

PnL

-$127.98

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C29

Invested

$192.43

Value

$192.53

PnL

+$0.1

Record

71%

215-88 (303)

Optimus-CTR

Yes

Invested

$484.46

Value

$42.67

PnL

-$441.79

Record

61%

1200-768 (1968)

0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR

Yes

Invested

$175.99

Value

$19.13

PnL

-$156.86

Record

79%

332-89 (421)

SlowroastedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19

Value

$8.13

PnL

-$10.87

Record

88%

1990-279 (2269)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

1534h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 78% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.