Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (65%) · No at 89¢ · $52K held · ends Nov 4

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 65%

Total Value

$51.9K

Combined PnL

-$130.89

Smart Money Entry

89.1¢ → 88.5¢

-1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 17 top traders (65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$42.2K

Total Shares47,956

Combined PnL-$95.54

Yes6 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares83,972

Combined PnL-$35.35

No — 65%Yes — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

4415h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

65% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AngryRhino	Noavg 89.7¢	$22.9K	$22.5K	-$309.88	69% 133-59 (192)
ImJustKen	Noavg 89.9¢	$7.2K	$6.8K	-$112.9	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107	Noavg 87¢	$6.7K	$6.6K	+$114.76	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
SU supersmardCTR	Yesavg 12.6¢	$5.1K	$4.6K	-$438.03	39% 46-71 (117)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 10.1¢	$3.1K	$3.5K	+$420.3	40% 704-1061 (1765)
HO HotDogs	Noavg 88.7¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$5	94% 442-28 (470)
Valen9	Noavg 88.1¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$7.78	60% 406-274 (680)
AB ABC12345654321	Noavg 87¢	$805.39	$1.1K	+$213.89	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
CO cowcat	Noavg 90.5¢	$621.65	$599.87	-$21.78	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
mombilCTR	Yesavg 12¢	$600	$575	-$25	55% 1191-966 (2157)
bernardbulletinCTR	Yesavg 9.4¢	$414.98	$487.72	+$92.35	69% 987-450 (1437)
mrworldwideCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$448.5	$368.52	-$79.97	69% 804-359 (1163)
IM immanuelcan	Noavg 88¢	$193.6	$348.18	+$11.88	53% 906-789 (1695)
probability	Noavg 87.6¢	$290.21	$294.52	+$4.31	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
TH TheFOMCGambler	Noavg 87.8¢	$227.3	$228.8	+$1.5	76% 102-32 (134)
Warren-BuffettCTR	Yesavg 12¢	$120	$115	-$5	65% 862-465 (1327)
DE dedidanc<$100	Noavg 89¢	$17.8	$17.6	-$0.1	57% 103-77 (180)

AngryRhino

Invested

$22,928.04

Value

$22.5K

PnL

-$309.88

Record

69%

133-59 (192)

ImJustKen

Invested

$7,243.94

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$112.9

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107

Invested

$6,721.96

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$114.76

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

supersmardCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,087.88

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$438.03

Record

39%

46-71 (117)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,110.85

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$420.3

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

HotDogs

Invested

$2,061.5

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$5

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

Valen9

Invested

$1,639.05

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$7.78

Record

60%

406-274 (680)

ABC12345654321

Invested

$805.39

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$213.89

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

cowcat

Invested

$621.65

Value

$599.87

PnL

-$21.78

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

mombilCTR

Yes

Invested

$600

Value

$575

PnL

-$25

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

bernardbulletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$414.98

Value

$487.72

PnL

+$92.35

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

mrworldwideCTR

Yes

Invested

$448.5

Value

$368.52

PnL

-$79.97

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

immanuelcan

Invested

$193.6

Value

$348.18

PnL

+$11.88

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

probability

Invested

$290.21

Value

$294.52

PnL

+$4.31

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

TheFOMCGambler

Invested

$227.3

Value

$228.8

PnL

+$1.5

Record

76%

102-32 (134)

Warren-BuffettCTR

Yes

Invested

$120

Value

$115

PnL

-$5

Record

65%

862-465 (1327)

dedidanc<$100

Invested

$17.8

Value

$17.6

PnL

-$0.1

Record

57%

103-77 (180)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 17 top traders (65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

4415h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

65% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.9%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.