Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (71%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will FK Dynamo Kyiv win on 2026-11-02?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 29¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 2

Yes71¢No29¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$169.05

Smart Money Entry

29.7¢ → 29¢

-2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No29%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares8,821

Combined PnL+$166.38

Yes2 traders

Total Value$291.68

Total Shares434

Combined PnL+$2.67

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotradecopyCTR	Noavg 28¢	$500	$598.21	+$98.21	49% 3953-4141 (8094)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 30.3¢	$403.31	$452.43	+$49.12	50% 26428-26255 (52683)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Noavg 28¢	$364.55	$442.66	+$71.61	51% 3961-3861 (7822)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 31.3¢	$395.64	$391.7	-$3.94	51% 17610-16613 (34223)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 30.1¢	$415.27	$370.19	-$45.09	58% 48507-34663 (83170)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Noavg 30.5¢	$237.28	$256.66	+$19.39	46% 9226-10935 (20161)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 32.2¢	$265.54	$221.97	-$26.17	58% 43595-31708 (75303)
SU suntori	Yesavg 66.5¢	$217.97	$216.4	-$1.57	45% 12892-15654 (28546)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$71.04	$75.28	+$4.24	50% 34698-34163 (68861)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 28.6¢	$62.3	$62.11	-$0.18	49% 13477-14174 (27651)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 28.2¢	$17.97	$21.68	+$3.39	50% 24998-24718 (49716)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$1.33	$1.37	+$0.04	53% 6370-5754 (12124)

NotradecopyCTR

Invested

$500

Value

$598.21

PnL

+$98.21

Record

49%

3953-4141 (8094)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$403.31

Value

$452.43

PnL

+$49.12

Record

50%

26428-26255 (52683)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Invested

$364.55

Value

$442.66

PnL

+$71.61

Record

51%

3961-3861 (7822)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$395.64

Value

$391.7

PnL

-$3.94

Record

51%

17610-16613 (34223)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$415.27

Value

$370.19

PnL

-$45.09

Record

58%

48507-34663 (83170)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Invested

$237.28

Value

$256.66

PnL

+$19.39

Record

46%

9226-10935 (20161)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$265.54

Value

$221.97

PnL

-$26.17

Record

58%

43595-31708 (75303)

suntori

Yes

Invested

$217.97

Value

$216.4

PnL

-$1.57

Record

45%

12892-15654 (28546)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.04

Value

$75.28

PnL

+$4.24

Record

50%

34698-34163 (68861)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$62.3

Value

$62.11

PnL

-$0.18

Record

49%

13477-14174 (27651)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$17.97

Value

$21.68

PnL

+$3.39

Record

50%

24998-24718 (49716)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.37

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

6370-5754 (12124)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.1%

29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$222.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

322.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.