Will Everton FC win on 2026-11-02?

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (54%) · No at 72¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 2

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 54%

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

$98.72

Smart Money Entry

69.5¢ → 71.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares12,197

Combined PnL-$73.11

No7 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares9,322

Combined PnL+$171.82

Yes — 46%No — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (12 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ND ndb1CTR	Yesavg 29¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$48.1	65% 909-479 (1388)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 70¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$45	53% 5749-5085 (10834)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 69.3¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$63.7	51% 17613-16616 (34229)
DO DolphinBaller	Noavg 69¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$36.26	47% 107-123 (230)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 69.1¢	$895.38	$914.57	+$19.19	58% 43600-31711 (75311)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 29.3¢	$477.07	$471.47	-$13.73	72% 6934-2740 (9674)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 70¢	$298.2	$302.46	+$6.39	46% 9226-10935 (20161)
CA Cannae	Noavg 70¢	$157.53	$159.78	+$1.13	53% 16258-14439 (30697)
coockroach1CTR	Yesavg 31.3¢	$127.42	$117.98	-$11.48	48% 34-37 (71)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$94.86	$87.21	-$7.65	48% 7159-7651 (14810)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 29¢	$308.27	$67.51	+$7.93	47% 13002-14566 (27568)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 68¢	$4.42	$4.61	+$0.16	53% 6371-5759 (12130)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.45	-$0.08	52% 7639-6913 (14552)

ndb1CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,790.02

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$48.1

Record

65%

909-479 (1388)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$2,100

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$45

Record

53%

5749-5085 (10834)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,034.62

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$63.7

Record

51%

17613-16616 (34229)

DolphinBaller

Invested

$1,000.82

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$36.26

Record

47%

107-123 (230)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$895.38

Value

$914.57

PnL

+$19.19

Record

58%

43600-31711 (75311)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$477.07

Value

$471.47

PnL

-$13.73

Record

72%

6934-2740 (9674)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$298.2

Value

$302.46

PnL

+$6.39

Record

46%

9226-10935 (20161)

Cannae

Invested

$157.53

Value

$159.78

PnL

+$1.13

Record

53%

16258-14439 (30697)

coockroach1CTR

Yes

Invested

$127.42

Value

$117.98

PnL

-$11.48

Record

48%

34-37 (71)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.86

Value

$87.21

PnL

-$7.65

Record

48%

7159-7651 (14810)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$308.27

Value

$67.51

PnL

+$7.93

Record

47%

13002-14566 (27568)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$4.42

Value

$4.61

PnL

+$0.16

Record

53%

6371-5759 (12130)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

7639-6913 (14552)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (12 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.