CD Tenerife vs. FC Andorra: O/U 4.5

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 95¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 2

Over5¢Under95¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

-$595.05

Smart Money Entry

90.4¢ → 95.5¢

+6% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 16 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under12 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares10,256

Combined PnL-$604.65

Over4 traders

Total Value$6.64

Total Shares148

Combined PnL+$9.59

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 82.4¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$347.2	58% 49552-35660 (85212)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 92.7¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$735.47	50% 27298-27227 (54525)
RI RichieRicher	Underavg 94¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$22.37	53% 758-659 (1417)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Underavg 99¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$0.56	95% 23677-1197 (24874)
ER72SEN	Underavg 89.8¢	$939.18	$963.48	+$24.31	69% 354-159 (513)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 83.6¢	$559.98	$615.95	+$102.51	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Underavg 99.1¢	$498.04	$462.36	-$215.35	35% 17563-32834 (50397)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 15.5¢	$905.19	$412.96	-$636.59	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
└ Over leg	Overavg 15.5¢	$718.47	$208.45	-$669.82
└ Under leg	Underavg 84¢	$186.72	$204.51	+$33.23
CI cigarettes	Underavg 98.3¢	$389.74	$341.76	-$158.62	54% 22035-19135 (41170)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Overavg 11.9¢	$368.43	$241.5	+$611.31	49% 14107-14668 (28775)
└ Under leg	Underavg 79.7¢	$131.22	$151.48	-$39.67
└ Over leg	Overavg 11.9¢	$237.21	$90.02	+$650.98
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 81.7¢	$72.45	$64.36	-$7.83	47% 10564-11815 (22379)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 85.1¢	$10.26	$11.82	+$14.87	57% 11866-8957 (20823)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 82¢	$10.92	$11.58	+$1.08	51% 7341-7085 (14426)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 82¢	$4.1	$4.6	+$0.85	48% 6154-6562 (12716)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 2.8¢	$2.52	$3.99	-$1.59	48% 5287-5668 (10955)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 14¢	$3.64	$1.17	+$7.9	50% 25247-24961 (50208)
DI dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 2¢	$0.45	$1	+$0.11	47% 10131-11459 (21590)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 14.9¢	$1.6	$0.48	+$3.17	55% 8674-6972 (15646)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$2,331.79

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$347.2

Record

58%

49552-35660 (85212)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,127.33

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$735.47

Record

50%

27298-27227 (54525)

RichieRicher

Under

Invested

$1,401.81

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$22.37

Record

53%

758-659 (1417)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Under

Invested

$1,028.79

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$0.56

Record

95%

23677-1197 (24874)

ER72SEN

Under

Invested

$939.18

Value

$963.48

PnL

+$24.31

Record

69%

354-159 (513)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$559.98

Value

$615.95

PnL

+$102.51

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

xtxpleasecallme

Under

Invested

$498.04

Value

$462.36

PnL

-$215.35

Record

35%

17563-32834 (50397)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$905.19

Value

$412.96

PnL

-$636.59

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

Both legs:

Over$718.4715.5¢-$669.82

Under$186.7284¢+$33.23

cigarettes

Under

Invested

$389.74

Value

$341.76

PnL

-$158.62

Record

54%

22035-19135 (41170)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Over

Invested

$368.43

Value

$241.5

PnL

+$611.31

Record

49%

14107-14668 (28775)

Both legs:

Under$131.2279.7¢-$39.67

Over$237.2111.9¢+$650.98

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$72.45

Value

$64.36

PnL

-$7.83

Record

47%

10564-11815 (22379)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$10.26

Value

$11.82

PnL

+$14.87

Record

57%

11866-8957 (20823)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$10.92

Value

$11.58

PnL

+$1.08

Record

51%

7341-7085 (14426)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$0.85

Record

48%

6154-6562 (12716)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.52

Value

$3.99

PnL

-$1.59

Record

48%

5287-5668 (10955)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.64

Value

$1.17

PnL

+$7.9

Record

50%

25247-24961 (50208)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

+$0.11

Record

47%

10131-11459 (21590)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.6

Value

$0.48

PnL

+$3.17

Record

55%

8674-6972 (15646)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 16 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 16

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.6%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.