Will FC Andorra win on 2026-11-01?

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 98¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 2

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$19.7K

Combined PnL

$890.28

Smart Money Entry

92.9¢ → 97.6¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$19.5K

Total Shares19,604

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Yes9 traders

Total Value$144.2

Total Shares9,108

Combined PnL-$636.26

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (11 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Noavg 92.7¢	$15.4K	$11.6K	+$1.1K	93% 903-63 (966)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 92.5¢	$5.9K	$6.3K	+$447.3	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 97.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$13.7	58% 48522-34672 (83194)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 93.6¢	$354.32	$299.33	-$58.19	50% 34712-34175 (68887)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$85.4	$86.32	+$0.92	56% 18394-14718 (33112)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Yesavg 10¢	$401.59	$60.9	-$340.69	52% 5708-5272 (10980)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 10¢	$209.98	$36.16	-$174.26	54% 58154-50376 (108530)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Yesavg 6.2¢	$119.85	$26.28	-$93.57	61% 13851-8756 (22607)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 71¢	$18.16	$25.01	+$0.51	53% 16265-14441 (30706)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$16.18	$11.62	-$5.38	49% 13480-14176 (27656)
DI dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$17.54	$5.79	-$10.47	46% 7320-8504 (15824)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 99¢	$4.95	$4.87	-$0.08	51% 1005-965 (1970)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.9¢	$11.41	$1.96	-$9.45	47% 10059-11176 (21235)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$1.83	$0.95	-$0.88	53% 6378-5764 (12142)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$1.08	$0.36	-$0.72	48% 3291-3584 (6875)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$1.02	$0.17	-$0.85	44% 9904-12850 (22754)

Momo63

Invested

$15,391.6

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

93%

903-63 (966)

Flaznorp

Invested

$5,896.74

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$447.3

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,182.84

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$13.7

Record

58%

48522-34672 (83194)

SnakeBall

Invested

$354.32

Value

$299.33

PnL

-$58.19

Record

50%

34712-34175 (68887)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$85.4

Value

$86.32

PnL

+$0.92

Record

56%

18394-14718 (33112)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Yes

Invested

$401.59

Value

$60.9

PnL

-$340.69

Record

52%

5708-5272 (10980)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$209.98

Value

$36.16

PnL

-$174.26

Record

54%

58154-50376 (108530)

LilybaeumCTR

Yes

Invested

$119.85

Value

$26.28

PnL

-$93.57

Record

61%

13851-8756 (22607)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$18.16

Value

$25.01

PnL

+$0.51

Record

53%

16265-14441 (30706)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.18

Value

$11.62

PnL

-$5.38

Record

49%

13480-14176 (27656)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.54

Value

$5.79

PnL

-$10.47

Record

46%

7320-8504 (15824)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.87

PnL

-$0.08

Record

51%

1005-965 (1970)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.41

Value

$1.96

PnL

-$9.45

Record

47%

10059-11176 (21235)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.83

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$0.88

Record

53%

6378-5764 (12142)

smithagentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.08

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$0.72

Record

48%

3291-3584 (6875)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$0.85

Record

44%

9904-12850 (22754)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (11 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.