CD Tenerife vs. FC Andorra: O/U 5.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 60¢ · $103K held · ended Nov 2

Over40¢Under60¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$103.3K

Combined PnL

-$581.9

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 59.6¢

-40% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$99.4K

Total Shares102,377

Combined PnL$-3.0K

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares6,082

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL alohaa	Underavg 99.9¢	$100.0K	$60.1K	$-40.0K	61% 1281-825 (2106)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 97.9¢	$283.13	$38.1K	+$37.8K	51% 23440-22208 (45648)
HRTradingCTR	Overavg 0.1¢	$3.5	$1.2K	+$1.2K	51% 7362-7108 (14470)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Underavg 99¢	$710.73	$1.1K	+$377.5	49% 14113-14680 (28793)
└ Over leg	Overavg 2.4¢	$40.5	$681	+$642.21
└ Under leg	Underavg 99¢	$670.23	$406.2	-$264.71
FE ferdinand2CTR	Overavg 0.1¢	$1	$800	+$799	48% 6175-6580 (12755)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Underavg 99¢	$1.1K	$694.43	-$451.96	95% 23696-1200 (24896)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 2¢	$21.31	$432.84	+$412.07	50% 27338-27264 (54602)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Underavg 97.3¢	$157.19	$337.64	+$180.69	58% 49573-35681 (85254)
└ Over leg	Overavg 1.8¢	$11.24	$247.64	+$236.71
└ Under leg	Underavg 97.3¢	$145.95	$90	-$56.02
XT xtxpleasecallme	Underavg 99.9¢	$499.99	$300.33	-$248.47	35% 17577-32882 (50459)
CI cigarettes	Underavg 98.3¢	$324.39	$198	-$126.56	54% 22041-19146 (41187)
RN1<$100	Underavg 98.2¢	$74.74	$45.67	-$29.11	53% 59089-51396 (110485)

alohaa

Under

Invested

$99,996.29

Value

$60.1K

PnL

$-40.0K

Record

61%

1281-825 (2106)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$283.13

Value

$38.1K

PnL

+$37.8K

Record

51%

23440-22208 (45648)

HRTradingCTR

Over

Invested

$3.5

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

51%

7362-7108 (14470)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Under

Invested

$710.73

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$377.5

Record

49%

14113-14680 (28793)

Both legs:

Over$40.52.4¢+$642.21

Under$670.2399¢-$264.71

ferdinand2CTR

Over

Invested

Value

$800

PnL

+$799

Record

48%

6175-6580 (12755)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Under

Invested

$1,145.82

Value

$694.43

PnL

-$451.96

Record

95%

23696-1200 (24896)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$21.31

Value

$432.84

PnL

+$412.07

Record

50%

27338-27264 (54602)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$157.19

Value

$337.64

PnL

+$180.69

Record

58%

49573-35681 (85254)

Both legs:

Over$11.241.8¢+$236.71

Under$145.9597.3¢-$56.02

xtxpleasecallme

Under

Invested

$499.99

Value

$300.33

PnL

-$248.47

Record

35%

17577-32882 (50459)

cigarettes

Under

Invested

$324.39

Value

$198

PnL

-$126.56

Record

54%

22041-19146 (41187)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$74.74

Value

$45.67

PnL

-$29.11

Record

53%

59089-51396 (110485)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$61.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.