Consensus PnL $48K · win rate 88% (7–1, n=8) · PM monthly #718 · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$48.2K
Record
7W / 1L
Win Rate
88.0%
of 8 settled
Batting Avg
83.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#283
Source
PM monthly #718 + pinned
Trades
1,143
Markets
30
Volume
$2.4M
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 8 on the consensus side (88%)- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $383K · now 98¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (85% of 40)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $321K · now 95¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $233K · now 95¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No $35K · now 98¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (94% of 36)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $7.0K · now 70¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No $5.2K · now 52¢ · in at 29¢with the consensus (58% of 33)
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes $5.1K · now 53¢ · in at 29¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $728 · now 71¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
Specialties
19 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 96¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0xB9d89bef8c935082F6a86355bD9667402D92275A-1751857844680's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 100%(won 100% of 19)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.