Consensus PnL $387 · win rate 100% (1–0, n=1) · PM monthly #758 · holds 64 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$387.06
Record
1W / 0L
Win Rate
100.0%
of 1 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#172
Source
PM monthly #758
Record (90 d)
1/1 · 100%
Trades
214
Markets
68
Volume
$14.1K
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Top consensus positions
64 in listed consensus markets · 47 of 64 on the consensus side (73%)- JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?Yes $1.2K · now 16¢ · in at 15¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $948 · now 83¢ · in at 83¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?No $924 · now 92¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (59% of 17)
- Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $759 · now 94¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $737 · now 91¢ · in at 91¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Bill Dally be the next CEO of NVIDIA?Yes $298 · now 0¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes $227 · now 75¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (20% of 5)
- Will Ian Buck be the next CEO of NVIDIA?Yes $210 · now 24¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
2 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 98¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 100%(won 100% of 2)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.