Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (90%). 22 of 26 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

22 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (85%) · Yes at 9.8¢ · $70K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 85%

Total Value

$70.4K

Combined PnL

$29.1K

Smart Money Entry

5.3¢ → 9.8¢

+82% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

22 of 26 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)22 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$12.9K

Total Shares14,239

Combined PnL+$1.5

Yes22 traders

Total Value$57.5K

Total Shares575,353

Combined PnL+$29.1K

No — 15%Yes — 85%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

272 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

85% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 10

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 87% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 87% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ImJustKen	Noavg 90.1¢	$11.9K	$11.9K	+$6.59	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$3.4K	$11.6K	+$8.3K	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
0x6e82b93eb57b01a63027bd0c6d2f3f04934a752cCTR	Yesavg 3¢	$3.4K	$10.9K	+$7.5K	55% 555-461 (1016)
TH thebug44CTR	Yesavg 10.2¢	$10.1K	$9.4K	-$664.02	33% 42-86 (128)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$1.4K	$6.3K	+$5.0K	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
gopfan2CTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$1.5K	$5.7K	+$4.2K	51% 901-875 (1776)
AP apmtCTR	Yesavg 9.4¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$108.87	74% 64-22 (86)
GayPrideCTR	Yes	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$2.1K	49% 357-367 (724)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR	Yesavg 6.7¢	$1.0K	$1.6K	+$499	50% 415-417 (832)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 9.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$6.05	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
RE rebotsliafCTR	Yes	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$1.0K	25% 185-564 (749)
BR BrownBeesCTR	Yesavg 11.5¢	$1.1K	$1,000	-$161.29	61% 67-43 (110)
KnureKnumeCTR	Yesavg 7.3¢	$901.4	$981.16	+$79.76	48% 400-434 (834)
CO cocococococoCTR	Yesavg 3.8¢	$489.28	$902.35	+$416.26	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Yesavg 10.9¢	$533.71	$576.98	+$43.27	42% 1081-1477 (2558)
DEGENKHANCTR	Yesavg 8.7¢	$531.04	$507.56	+$13.93	66% 1107-565 (1672)
GollumGekkoCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$20.65	$500	+$465.09	68% 2074-957 (3031)
mombil	Noavg 91.2¢	$481.82	$476.58	-$5.23	55% 1191-966 (2157)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 90.3¢	$290.94	$290.98	+$0.04	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
PU PutsOnPeace	Noavg 90.1¢	$3.2K	$180.48	+$0.1	66% 955-482 (1437)
FA failstoberCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$13.5	$160	+$146.92	26% 351-985 (1336)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$81.94	$87.97	+$6.03	59% 986-684 (1670)
DonationsReceiverCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.1¢	$35.7	$34.49	-$1.21	60% 245-160 (405)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$29.5	$29.5	+$26.46	7% 14-187 (201)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$2.15	$26.86	+$24.71	45% 1905-2348 (4253)

ImJustKen

Invested

$11,895.69

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$6.59

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,379.17

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$8.3K

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

0x6e82b93eb57b01a63027bd0c6d2f3f04934a752cCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,411.15

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$7.5K

Record

55%

555-461 (1016)

thebug44CTR

Yes

Invested

$10,052.52

Value

$9.4K

PnL

-$664.02

Record

33%

42-86 (128)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,442.17

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$5.0K

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

gopfan2CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,503.83

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$4.2K

Record

51%

901-875 (1776)

apmtCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,383.66

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$108.87

Record

74%

64-22 (86)

GayPrideCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,250

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

49%

357-367 (724)

Contentious-DinnerdateCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,043.2

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$499

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,438.75

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$6.05

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

rebotsliafCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,111.1

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

25%

185-564 (749)

BrownBeesCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,146.3

Value

$1,000

PnL

-$161.29

Record

61%

67-43 (110)

KnureKnumeCTR

Yes

Invested

$901.4

Value

$981.16

PnL

+$79.76

Record

48%

400-434 (834)

cocococococoCTR

Yes

Invested

$489.28

Value

$902.35

PnL

+$416.26

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Yes

Invested

$533.71

Value

$576.98

PnL

+$43.27

Record

42%

1081-1477 (2558)

DEGENKHANCTR

Yes

Invested

$531.04

Value

$507.56

PnL

+$13.93

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

GollumGekkoCTR

Yes

Invested

$20.65

Value

$500

PnL

+$465.09

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

mombil

Invested

$481.82

Value

$476.58

PnL

-$5.23

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

ghorrock

Invested

$290.94

Value

$290.98

PnL

+$0.04

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

PutsOnPeace

Invested

$3,180.18

Value

$180.48

PnL

+$0.1

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

failstoberCTR

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$160

PnL

+$146.92

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

PaddyAlphaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.94

Value

$87.97

PnL

+$6.03

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

DonationsReceiverCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.7

Value

$34.49

PnL

-$1.21

Record

60%

245-160 (405)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.5

Value

$29.5

PnL

+$26.46

Record

14-187 (201)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.15

Value

$26.86

PnL

+$24.71

Record

45%

1905-2348 (4253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

22 of 26 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)22 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

272 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

85% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 10

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 87% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 87% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.1%

9.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$798.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

898.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.