Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (90%). 33 of 35 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

33 of 35 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (94%) · Yes at 9.6¢ · $114K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 94%

Total Value

$114.0K

Combined PnL

-$165.39

Smart Money Entry

13.4¢ → 9.6¢

-28% since entry · 31 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

33 of 35 top traders (94%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)33 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes33 traders

Total Value$106.3K

Total Shares555,627

Combined PnL+$130.52

No2 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares8,501

Combined PnL-$295.91

Yes — 94%No — 6%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

33 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

230 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

94% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 11

Aligned

sharpYes 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 95% · 20

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 95% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AhpoCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$40.0K	$40.0K	+$0	87% 1621-251 (1872)
Barkshire-HathawayCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$10.0K	$18.0K	+$0	64% 1093-623 (1716)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 6.1¢	$11.1K	$10.7K	-$393.44	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$36.9K	$9.1K	$-4.2K	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
ZP Zptml	Noavg 94¢	$8.3K	$7.5K	-$298.84	70% 32-14 (46)
BT BTCGambler247CTR	Yesavg 10.2¢	$20.4	$7.1K	-$436.64	47% 217-240 (457)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 7.1¢	$2.6K	$6.7K	+$4.1K	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 9.4¢	$3.4K	$3.1K	-$303	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR	Yesavg 13.5¢	$2.8K	$2.0K	-$794.58	50% 415-417 (832)
RE rebotsliafCTR	Yesavg 9.6¢	$426.62	$1.8K	+$1.3K	25% 185-564 (749)
CarCTR	Yesavg 8.2¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$227.16	67% 4164-2026 (6190)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 3.5¢	$401.68	$1.1K	+$689.63	47% 83-94 (177)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$186.02	$719.12	+$533.11	39% 1780-2832 (4612)
NadmiCTR	Yesavg 2.3¢	$168.75	$697.19	+$521.25	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
PaddyAlphaCTR	Yesavg 9.8¢	$554.77	$692.36	+$137.59	59% 986-684 (1670)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yesavg 8.9¢	$330.08	$653.74	+$323.65	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
XieGuangKunCTR	Yesavg 5¢	$200	$388	+$184	51% 367-349 (716)
Tenebrus7CTR	Yesavg 6.3¢	$395.79	$341.72	-$54.08	73% 2952-1072 (4024)
GollumGekkoCTR	Yesavg 44.1¢	$1.5K	$312.39	$-1.2K	68% 2074-957 (3031)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 9.3¢	$239.18	$247.96	+$8.78	38% 20-32 (52)
BR BrownBeesCTR	Yesavg 13.8¢	$345	$242.5	-$105	61% 67-43 (110)
CR Crock95CTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$80	$242.5	+$162.5	57% 255-194 (449)
CO cocococococoCTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$17.02	$222.94	+$205.92	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
RD rdbaCTR	Yesavg 4¢	$3.0M	$189.7	-$789.5	60% 131-88 (219)
PU PutsOnPeace	Noavg 88.9¢	$177.87	$180.8	+$2.93	66% 955-482 (1437)

AhpoCTR

Yes

Invested

$40,040

Value

$40.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

87%

1621-251 (1872)

Barkshire-HathawayCTR

Yes

Invested

$10,000

Value

$18.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

1093-623 (1716)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$11,062.59

Value

$10.7K

PnL

-$393.44

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$36,927.24

Value

$9.1K

PnL

$-4.2K

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

Zptml

Invested

$8,301.1

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$298.84

Record

70%

32-14 (46)

BTCGambler247CTR

Yes

Invested

$20.4

Value

$7.1K

PnL

-$436.64

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,590.76

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$4.1K

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,359.35

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$303

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

Contentious-DinnerdateCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,765.35

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$794.58

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

rebotsliafCTR

Yes

Invested

$426.62

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

25%

185-564 (749)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,254.85

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$227.16

Record

67%

4164-2026 (6190)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Yes

Invested

$401.68

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$689.63

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR

Yes

Invested

$186.02

Value

$719.12

PnL

+$533.11

Record

39%

1780-2832 (4612)

NadmiCTR

Yes

Invested

$168.75

Value

$697.19

PnL

+$521.25

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

PaddyAlphaCTR

Yes

Invested

$554.77

Value

$692.36

PnL

+$137.59

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

HerrieDavisCTR

Yes

Invested

$330.08

Value

$653.74

PnL

+$323.65

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

XieGuangKunCTR

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$388

PnL

+$184

Record

51%

367-349 (716)

Tenebrus7CTR

Yes

Invested

$395.79

Value

$341.72

PnL

-$54.08

Record

73%

2952-1072 (4024)

GollumGekkoCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,538.93

Value

$312.39

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$239.18

Value

$247.96

PnL

+$8.78

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

BrownBeesCTR

Yes

Invested

$345

Value

$242.5

PnL

-$105

Record

61%

67-43 (110)

Crock95CTR

Yes

Invested

$80

Value

$242.5

PnL

+$162.5

Record

57%

255-194 (449)

cocococococoCTR

Yes

Invested

$17.02

Value

$222.94

PnL

+$205.92

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

rdbaCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,007,987

Value

$189.7

PnL

-$789.5

Record

60%

131-88 (219)

PutsOnPeace

Invested

$177.87

Value

$180.8

PnL

+$2.93

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

33 of 35 top traders (94%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)33 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

33 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

230 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

94% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 11

Aligned

sharpYes 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 95% · 20

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 95% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.0%

9.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$810.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

910.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.