Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 92¢ · $53K held · ends Jan 8, 2027

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Fri, Jan 8, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 77%

Total Value

$52.7K

Combined PnL

-$95.35

Smart Money Entry

91.8¢ → 92.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 92%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$52.4K

Total Shares56,464

Combined PnL-$22.76

Yes3 traders

Total Value$260.46

Total Shares3,450

Combined PnL-$72.59

No — 77%Yes — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ImJustKen	Noavg 90.8¢	$27.4K	$27.6K	+$134.14	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
CH chriszyy3	Noavg 94.9¢	$8.2K	$8.0K	-$211.55	94% 242-16 (258)
wish-	Noavg 92.8¢	$4.8K	$4.7K	-$36.29	79% 1176-319 (1495)
studmuffin6969	Noavg 92¢	$4.6K	$4.6K	+$22.5	59% 1027-717 (1744)
AE Aeglos	Noavg 92.7¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	-$12.11	82% 18-4 (22)
SQ SquirrelTheMerchant	Noavg 91.3¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	+$41.59	55% 79-65 (144)
BI BikesAreTheBikes	Noavg 83¢	$488.23	$220.14	+$36.39	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 10.7¢	$155.28	$148.82	-$6.47	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
CO cocococococoCTR	Yesavg 13.3¢	$155.63	$87.61	-$68.02	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 83.2¢	$21.99	$24.41	+$2.42	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$22.13	$24.03	+$1.9	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
RA rated<$100	Noavg 85.9¢	$1.44	$1.56	+$0.12	29% 2865-6952 (9817)
YO YouSayUpISayDown<$100	Noavg 90.6¢	$0.97	$1.01	+$0.04	53% 3726-3240 (6966)

ImJustKen

Invested

$27,446.39

Value

$27.6K

PnL

+$134.14

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

chriszyy3

Invested

$8,194.48

Value

$8.0K

PnL

-$211.55

Record

94%

242-16 (258)

wish-

Invested

$4,756.4

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$36.29

Record

79%

1176-319 (1495)

studmuffin6969

Invested

$4,599.99

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$22.5

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

Aeglos

Invested

$3,830.32

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$12.11

Record

82%

18-4 (22)

SquirrelTheMerchant

Invested

$3,537.48

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$41.59

Record

55%

79-65 (144)

BikesAreTheBikes

Invested

$488.23

Value

$220.14

PnL

+$36.39

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$155.28

Value

$148.82

PnL

-$6.47

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

cocococococoCTR

Yes

Invested

$155.63

Value

$87.61

PnL

-$68.02

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$21.99

Value

$24.41

PnL

+$2.42

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

ScottyNoooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.13

Value

$24.03

PnL

+$1.9

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

rated<$100

Invested

$1.44

Value

$1.56

PnL

+$0.12

Record

29%

2865-6952 (9817)

YouSayUpISayDown<$100

Invested

$0.97

Value

$1.01

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

3726-3240 (6966)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 92%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.