Will Ian Buck be the next CEO of NVIDIA?

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (59%) · No at 77¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 59%

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$734.23

Smart Money Entry

67.3¢ → 76.5¢

+14% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares6,236

Combined PnL+$311.05

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares4,523

Combined PnL+$423.18

No — 59%Yes — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 66.9¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$190.72	66% 4159-2183 (6342)
0X 0x2a5ffc44aeb0aa4d1cdf41df7e6be60ed4476c92	Noavg 63¢	$734.38	$815.98	+$81.6	—
TY TyatsmrCTR	Yesavg 32.1¢	$871.78	$815.11	-$56.66	—
pIebe	Noavg 70.7¢	$741.79	$734.43	-$7.35	— 3-4 (7)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 70¢	$669.85	$684.1	+$14.25	40% 3217-4824 (8041)
MA MaxEnt	Noavg 66.8¢	$417.73	$437.47	+$19.75	— 1-0 (1)
0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$6.55	$210.12	+$203.58	— 1-0 (1)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR	Yesavg 29¢	$145	$150	+$5	— 3-1 (4)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Noavg 67¢	$129.08	$134.79	+$5.72	1% 4-584 (588)
ifyouloveme<$100	Noavg 72¢	$75.55	$73.5	-$2.05	52% 266-248 (514)
arjennnnn<$100	Noavg 67.2¢	$67.54	$70.35	+$2.81	68% 524-241 (765)
Dr.mett<$100	Noavg 67¢	$67	$70	+$3	— 7-1 (8)
BI BiggggggggCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$291.71	$65.52	+$233.77	52% 1614-1484 (3098)
HoshinoAICTR	Yesavg 31.8¢	$629.96	$65.4	-$39.34	42% 13-18 (31)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 62¢	$17.49	$20.1	+$2.61	38% 58-96 (154)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR	Yesavg 12.8¢	$120.68	$8.59	+$64.04	41% 13-19 (32)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$17.25	$5.98	+$12.79	58% 446-318 (764)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$1,350.68

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$190.72

Record

66%

4159-2183 (6342)

0x2a5ffc44aeb0aa4d1cdf41df7e6be60ed4476c92

Invested

$734.38

Value

$815.98

PnL

+$81.6

Record

—

TyatsmrCTR

Yes

Invested

$871.78

Value

$815.11

PnL

-$56.66

Record

—

pIebe

Invested

$741.79

Value

$734.43

PnL

-$7.35

Record

—

3-4 (7)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$669.85

Value

$684.1

PnL

+$14.25

Record

40%

3217-4824 (8041)

MaxEnt

Invested

$417.73

Value

$437.47

PnL

+$19.75

Record

—

1-0 (1)

0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR

Yes

Invested

$6.55

Value

$210.12

PnL

+$203.58

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Contentious-DinnerdateCTR

Yes

Invested

$145

Value

$150

PnL

+$5

Record

—

3-1 (4)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Invested

$129.08

Value

$134.79

PnL

+$5.72

Record

4-584 (588)

ifyouloveme<$100

Invested

$75.55

Value

$73.5

PnL

-$2.05

Record

52%

266-248 (514)

arjennnnn<$100

Invested

$67.54

Value

$70.35

PnL

+$2.81

Record

68%

524-241 (765)

Dr.mett<$100

Invested

$67

Value

$70

PnL

+$3

Record

—

7-1 (8)

BiggggggggCTR

Yes

Invested

$291.71

Value

$65.52

PnL

+$233.77

Record

52%

1614-1484 (3098)

HoshinoAICTR

Yes

Invested

$629.96

Value

$65.4

PnL

-$39.34

Record

42%

13-18 (31)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$17.49

Value

$20.1

PnL

+$2.61

Record

38%

58-96 (154)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR

Yes

Invested

$120.68

Value

$8.59

PnL

+$64.04

Record

41%

13-19 (32)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.25

Value

$5.98

PnL

+$12.79

Record

58%

446-318 (764)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.2%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.