Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

6 of 34 top Polymarket traders hold No (18%) · No at 94¢ · $121K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 18%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$120.9K

Combined PnL

$51.9K

Smart Money Entry

94.2¢ → 93.7¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 34 top traders (18%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed28 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes28 traders

Total Value$64.9K

Total Shares1,021,931

Combined PnL+$52.2K

No6 traders

Total Value$49.0K

Total Shares52,263

Combined PnL-$270.81

Yes — 82%No — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

5057h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

221 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 91% · 11

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 3

Diverging

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 24

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 92% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 81% · 27

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PX pxlzCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$11.4K	$53.5K	+$42.0K	— 0-3 (3)
LA lastminwin	Noavg 94.1¢	$40.0K	$37.5K	-$179.88	50% 14-14 (28)
TU tugatorARB<$100	Noavg 93.6¢	$2.5K	$7.1K	+$4.6K	85% 2886-490 (3376)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 0.8¢	$645.75	$5.3K	+$4.6K
└ No leg	Noavg 93.6¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$0.97
HoshinoAI	Noavg 93.9¢	$6.4K	$6.0K	-$15.38	7% 2-26 (28)
siickCTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$680.52	$3.9K	+$3.2K	55% 838-692 (1530)
J- J-E-R	Noavg 96¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$75.77	43% 163-220 (383)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$333.04	$2.7K	+$2.4K	42% 1545-2124 (3669)
Lolakis	Noavg 94¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$8.75	56% 777-601 (1378)
RE rebotsliafCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$108.67	$1.1K	+$960.47	21% 194-723 (917)
mombilCTR	Yesavg 2.1¢	$305.44	$937.17	+$631.73	56% 1269-1001 (2270)
0X 0x4e25605fd905e9972efc0f4d8814530c655cd7a7CTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$80.58	$749.25	+$668.68	51% 2515-2411 (4926)
CarCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$95.04	$431.06	+$336.02	66% 4490-2319 (6809)
BrokieCTR	Yesavg 4¢	$200	$317.5	+$117.5	53% 450-395 (845)
GollumGekkoCTR	Yesavg 0.5¢	$21.89	$254	+$232.11	68% 2129-1010 (3139)
FA failstoberCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$24.76	$235.65	+$210.88	26% 354-985 (1339)
DonkovCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$42.78	$189.53	+$146.75	71% 1004-406 (1410)
PU PutsOnPeace	Noavg 94.6¢	$200	$187.3	-$1.9	66% 1031-529 (1560)
HaradwaithCTR	Yesavg 2.1¢	$1.4K	$152.82	+$934.13	57% 41453-31224 (72677)
ImJustKenCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$45.89	$97.14	+$51.25	53% 3355-3003 (6358)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$52.11	$80.14	+$28.04	41% 3605-5119 (8724)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$7.81	$63.5	+$55.69	54% 1062-889 (1951)
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Yes	$63.5	$63.5	+$56.5	48% 2178-2363 (4541)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$2.8K	$52.02	+$40.22	73% 13539-5008 (18547)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$2.27	$32.37	+$17.52	49% 22834-23666 (46500)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$7.43	$22.55	+$15.12	41% 2312-3381 (5693)

pxlzCTR

Yes

Invested

$11,440.89

Value

$53.5K

PnL

+$42.0K

Record

—

0-3 (3)

lastminwin

Invested

$39,999.95

Value

$37.5K

PnL

-$179.88

Record

50%

14-14 (28)

tugatorARB<$100

Invested

$2,466.89

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

85%

2886-490 (3376)

Both legs:

Yes$645.750.8¢+$4.6K

No$1,817.5293.6¢+$0.97

HoshinoAI

Invested

$6,361.28

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$15.38

Record

2-26 (28)

siickCTR

Yes

Invested

$680.52

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

55%

838-692 (1530)

J-

J-E-R

Invested

$3,069.93

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$75.77

Record

43%

163-220 (383)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$333.04

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

42%

1545-2124 (3669)

Lolakis

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$8.75

Record

56%

777-601 (1378)

rebotsliafCTR

Yes

Invested

$108.67

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$960.47

Record

21%

194-723 (917)

mombilCTR

Yes

Invested

$305.44

Value

$937.17

PnL

+$631.73

Record

56%

1269-1001 (2270)

0x4e25605fd905e9972efc0f4d8814530c655cd7a7CTR

Yes

Invested

$80.58

Value

$749.25

PnL

+$668.68

Record

51%

2515-2411 (4926)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$95.04

Value

$431.06

PnL

+$336.02

Record

66%

4490-2319 (6809)

BrokieCTR

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$317.5

PnL

+$117.5

Record

53%

450-395 (845)

GollumGekkoCTR

Yes

Invested

$21.89

Value

$254

PnL

+$232.11

Record

68%

2129-1010 (3139)

failstoberCTR

Yes

Invested

$24.76

Value

$235.65

PnL

+$210.88

Record

26%

354-985 (1339)

DonkovCTR

Yes

Invested

$42.78

Value

$189.53

PnL

+$146.75

Record

71%

1004-406 (1410)

PutsOnPeace

Invested

$200

Value

$187.3

PnL

-$1.9

Record

66%

1031-529 (1560)

HaradwaithCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,428.15

Value

$152.82

PnL

+$934.13

Record

57%

41453-31224 (72677)

ImJustKenCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.89

Value

$97.14

PnL

+$51.25

Record

53%

3355-3003 (6358)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.11

Value

$80.14

PnL

+$28.04

Record

41%

3605-5119 (8724)

RememberAmalekCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.81

Value

$63.5

PnL

+$55.69

Record

54%

1062-889 (1951)

cowcatCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.5

Value

$63.5

PnL

+$56.5

Record

48%

2178-2363 (4541)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,801.52

Value

$52.02

PnL

+$40.22

Record

73%

13539-5008 (18547)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.27

Value

$32.37

PnL

+$17.52

Record

49%

22834-23666 (46500)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.43

Value

$22.55

PnL

+$15.12

Record

41%

2312-3381 (5693)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 34 top traders (18%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed28 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

5057h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

221 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 91% · 11

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 3

Diverging

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 24

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 92% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 81% · 27

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.9%

93.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.