Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?

13 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (72%) · No at 97¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 4

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 72%

Total Value

$24.5K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

88.5¢ → 97.4¢

+10% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 18 top traders (72%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$23.6K

Total Shares24,319

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$892.17

Total Shares30,782

Combined PnL-$652.94

No — 72%Yes — 28%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Noavg 85.3¢	$13.6K	$15.5K	+$1.9K	61% 203-132 (335)
TH thoodr	Noavg 96.7¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$15.44	96% 631-24 (655)
ST StudentMoney	Noavg 92.3¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$74.9	71% 828-343 (1171)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 93.7¢	$948.31	$982.12	+$33.81	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
DEGENKHAN	Noavg 97.3¢	$658.81	$656.78	-$0.68	66% 1107-565 (1672)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$868.91	$597.34	-$269.68	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
Ryxon21	Noavg 88.1¢	$479.56	$522.89	+$43.33	71% 318-130 (448)
HO HotDogs	Noavg 96¢	$384	$388	+$4.4	94% 442-28 (470)
Talophex	Noavg 97¢	$242.5	$242.5	+$0.25	91% 929-95 (1024)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 6.2¢	$492.12	$231.65	-$268.44	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
PU PutsOnPeace	Noavg 97.2¢	$194.4	$194	+$0.1	66% 955-482 (1437)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 96.2¢	$132	$113.87	+$1.67	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$68.5	$48.26	-$21.87	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 76.7¢	$34.8	$44.1	+$9.3	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
aenews2CTR	Yesavg 21.4¢	$107.17	$14	-$93.17	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
bernardbulletin<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$9.67	$9.71	+$0.06	69% 987-450 (1437)
randomWalkingShrimp<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$9.64	$9.7	+$0.07	77% 1204-366 (1570)
11 11122CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.68	$0.92	+$0.24	44% 1401-1817 (3218)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Invested

$13,616.37

Value

$15.5K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

thoodr

Invested

$3,070.66

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$15.44

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

StudentMoney

Invested

$1,791.61

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$74.9

Record

71%

828-343 (1171)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$948.31

Value

$982.12

PnL

+$33.81

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

DEGENKHAN

Invested

$658.81

Value

$656.78

PnL

-$0.68

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR

Yes

Invested

$868.91

Value

$597.34

PnL

-$269.68

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

Ryxon21

Invested

$479.56

Value

$522.89

PnL

+$43.33

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

HotDogs

Invested

$384

Value

$388

PnL

+$4.4

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

Talophex

Invested

$242.5

Value

$242.5

PnL

+$0.25

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$492.12

Value

$231.65

PnL

-$268.44

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

PutsOnPeace

Invested

$194.4

Value

$194

PnL

+$0.1

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

ghorrock

Invested

$132

Value

$113.87

PnL

+$1.67

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.5

Value

$48.26

PnL

-$21.87

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$34.8

Value

$44.1

PnL

+$9.3

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

aenews2CTR

Yes

Invested

$107.17

Value

$14

PnL

-$93.17

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

bernardbulletin<$100

Invested

$9.67

Value

$9.71

PnL

+$0.06

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

randomWalkingShrimp<$100

Invested

$9.64

Value

$9.7

PnL

+$0.07

Record

77%

1204-366 (1570)

11122CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.68

Value

$0.92

PnL

+$0.24

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

13 of 18 top traders (72%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.