Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?

8 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 85¢ · $36K held · ends Nov 4

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$35.6K

Combined PnL

$-5.1K

Smart Money Entry

80.6¢ → 84.5¢

+5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 18 top traders (44%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$22.3K

Total Shares26,349

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Yes10 traders

Total Value$13.3K

Total Shares85,797

Combined PnL$-6.1K

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

169 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 53% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Noavg 81¢	$12.1K	$12.6K	+$521.41	61% 203-132 (335)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 22.3¢	$15.8K	$10.6K	$-5.2K	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Noavg 80¢	$6.5K	$6.9K	+$366.52	53% 915-808 (1723)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR	Yesavg 19.9¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	-$474.91	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 82¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$1.43	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
LI lissartter	Noavg 79.1¢	$2.5K	$1.0K	+$120.04	42% 5283-7233 (12516)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 23¢	$920	$620	-$300	36% 397-691 (1088)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 81.9¢	$692.38	$438.09	+$8.52	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
ST StraddleSellerCTR	Yesavg 23.9¢	$319.57	$198.79	-$120.78	60% 174-115 (289)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA	Noavg 81¢	$162	$170	+$7	67% 751-378 (1129)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 15.2¢	$124.5	$125.41	+$0.9	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.5¢	$90.41	$87.46	-$0.2	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82¢	$65.6	$66.47	+$0.87	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
CO cowcat<$100	Noavg 50¢	$25	$42.5	+$17.75	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
11 11122CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.4¢	$36.68	$37.9	+$1.22	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
SB sbimbgCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$37.94	$36.76	-$1.19	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 38.6¢	$86.55	$34.72	-$51.83	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
SF sfkjbsr457CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$1.04	$1.24	+$0.2	54% 8322-7007 (15329)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Invested

$12,066.24

Value

$12.6K

PnL

+$521.41

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$15,784.57

Value

$10.6K

PnL

$-5.2K

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Invested

$6,520.83

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$366.52

Record

53%

915-808 (1723)

peepeepooppoopCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,120.52

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$474.91

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$1,049.64

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$1.43

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

lissartter

Invested

$2,548.08

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$120.04

Record

42%

5283-7233 (12516)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$920

Value

$620

PnL

-$300

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$692.38

Value

$438.09

PnL

+$8.52

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

StraddleSellerCTR

Yes

Invested

$319.57

Value

$198.79

PnL

-$120.78

Record

60%

174-115 (289)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA

Invested

$162

Value

$170

PnL

+$7

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$124.5

Value

$125.41

PnL

+$0.9

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.41

Value

$87.46

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$65.6

Value

$66.47

PnL

+$0.87

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

cowcat<$100

Invested

$25

Value

$42.5

PnL

+$17.75

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

11122CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.68

Value

$37.9

PnL

+$1.22

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

sbimbgCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.94

Value

$36.76

PnL

-$1.19

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$86.55

Value

$34.72

PnL

-$51.83

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

sfkjbsr457CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.24

PnL

+$0.2

Record

54%

8322-7007 (15329)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 18 top traders (44%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

169 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 53% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.0%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.