Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 86¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 4

Yes86¢No14¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 64%

Total Value

$26.9K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 85.5¢

+7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 86%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes86%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$26.6K

Total Shares31,158

Combined PnL+$1.7K

No4 traders

Total Value$315.31

Total Shares2,251

Combined PnL-$15.44

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

412h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 77¢	$14.6K	$16.2K	+$1.6K	61% 203-132 (335)
mrworldwide	Yesavg 84.7¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	+$53.46	69% 804-359 (1163)
SB sbimbg	Yesavg 84¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$50.36	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
BA balerinacapuchina	Yesavg 87¢	$696	$680	-$12	72% 176-70 (246)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 85.4¢	$393.25	$382.94	-$4.11	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
ME Melody626	Yesavg 85¢	$297.87	$299.62	+$1.75	58% 705-521 (1226)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 83.8¢	$269.7	$275.31	+$5.61	38% 20-32 (52)
0X 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR	Noavg 14.7¢	$203.98	$200.28	-$3.7	79% 332-89 (421)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	No	$113.09	$113.09	-$11.24	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$1.46	$1.11	-$0.36	40% 174-265 (439)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$1.02	$0.84	-$0.15	50% 7969-8009 (15978)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$14,620.32

Value

$16.2K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

mrworldwide

Yes

Invested

$5,892.5

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$53.46

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

sbimbg

Yes

Invested

$2,791.02

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$50.36

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

balerinacapuchina

Yes

Invested

$696

Value

$680

PnL

-$12

Record

72%

176-70 (246)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$393.25

Value

$382.94

PnL

-$4.11

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

Melody626

Yes

Invested

$297.87

Value

$299.62

PnL

+$1.75

Record

58%

705-521 (1226)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$269.7

Value

$275.31

PnL

+$5.61

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR

Invested

$203.98

Value

$200.28

PnL

-$3.7

Record

79%

332-89 (421)

ABC12345654321CTR

Invested

$113.09

Value

$113.09

PnL

-$11.24

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Invested

$1.46

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$0.36

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

RLWGCTR<$100

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.84

PnL

-$0.15

Record

50%

7969-8009 (15978)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 86%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

412h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.0%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.