US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

14 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold No (52%) · No at 87¢ · $710K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 52%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$709.8K

Combined PnL

$2.7K

Smart Money Entry

85.6¢ → 86.5¢

+1% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 27 top traders (52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$653.4K

Total Shares755,316

Combined PnL+$5.5K

Yes13 traders

Total Value$55.9K

Total Shares419,212

Combined PnL$-2.8K

No — 52%Yes — 48%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

2985h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

52% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (17 on Yes) and the top 1000 (19 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 60% · 15

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 53% · 17

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA	Noavg 86.7¢	$441.8K	$403.6K	-$702.28	67% 751-378 (1129)
PI pilimili	Noavg 87.7¢	$134.8K	$126.1K	$-1.7K	62% 151-91 (242)
HO hopedieslast	Noavg 81.1¢	$36.9K	$39.4K	+$2.4K	59% 118-81 (199)
WA wan123CTR	Yesavg 9.7¢	$27.0K	$37.6K	+$10.5K	39% 196-304 (500)
TR Trump2028	Noavg 83.6¢	$28.1K	$29.1K	+$985.55	82% 402-89 (491)
eCash	Noavg 79.2¢	$24.7K	$26.9K	+$2.3K	68% 331-155 (486)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 82.4¢	$12.8K	$13.0K	+$125.01	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
DE denizzCTR	Yesavg 30.5¢	$13.0K	$5.6K	$-7.4K	68% 597-284 (881)
Valen9CTR	Yesavg 30¢	$11.7K	$5.3K	$-6.3K	60% 407-274 (681)
RememberAmalek	Noavg 64.8¢	$3.2K	$4.3K	+$1.1K	56% 973-770 (1743)
MEPP	Noavg 69.6¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	+$39.15	64% 633-352 (985)
SK skibabiba	Noavg 70¢	$2.7K	$3.3K	+$627	87% 95-14 (109)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	-$92.1	40% 704-1062 (1766)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 11.8¢	$2.3K	$2.6K	+$293.84	36% 190-333 (523)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 87¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$23.78	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
GollumGekko	Noavg 60.5¢	$835.91	$1.1K	+$231.48	68% 2074-958 (3032)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 83.9¢	$753.52	$776.76	+$23.24	89% 4653-547 (5200)
cambridgeisaacCTR	Yesavg 22¢	$1.0K	$693.18	-$308.14	57% 1114-837 (1951)
PaddyAlphaARB<$100	Yesavg 17.1¢	$532.14	$575.92	+$43.78	59% 986-684 (1670)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 17.1¢	$563.98	$428.21	+$41.92
└ No leg	Noavg 85.9¢	$146.76	$147.72	+$1.86
0X 0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516CTR	Yesavg 32¢	$1.0K	$406.25	+$421.88	49% 112-118 (230)
GonTanaka	Noavg 67.6¢	$1.1K	$268.15	+$112.51	57% 173-128 (301)
CarCTR	Yesavg 11.8¢	$228.64	$258.46	+$29.82	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
8D 8dcc906a9bCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$67.95	$69.02	-$2.65	32% 50-104 (154)
UbuntuTradingCTR	Yesavg 12¢	$144	$54	-$1	57% 3069-2356 (5425)
JE Jest55<$100	Noavg 77.4¢	$33.28	$37.2	+$3.93	75% 1028-338 (1366)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA

Invested

$441,774.6

Value

$403.6K

PnL

-$702.28

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

pilimili

Invested

$134,781.29

Value

$126.1K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

62%

151-91 (242)

hopedieslast

Invested

$36,914.95

Value

$39.4K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

59%

118-81 (199)

wan123CTR

Yes

Invested

$27,041.36

Value

$37.6K

PnL

+$10.5K

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

Trump2028

Invested

$28,134.96

Value

$29.1K

PnL

+$985.55

Record

82%

402-89 (491)

eCash

Invested

$24,672.57

Value

$26.9K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$12,849.98

Value

$13.0K

PnL

+$125.01

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

denizzCTR

Yes

Invested

$12,965.4

Value

$5.6K

PnL

$-7.4K

Record

68%

597-284 (881)

Valen9CTR

Yes

Invested

$11,680.24

Value

$5.3K

PnL

$-6.3K

Record

60%

407-274 (681)

RememberAmalek

Invested

$3,241.65

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

MEPP

Invested

$3,891.34

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$39.15

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

skibabiba

Invested

$2,660

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$627

Record

87%

95-14 (109)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,342.15

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$92.1

Record

40%

704-1062 (1766)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,306.15

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$293.84

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$1,577.78

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$23.78

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

GollumGekko

Invested

$835.91

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$231.48

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

nonkenny90

Invested

$753.52

Value

$776.76

PnL

+$23.24

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

cambridgeisaacCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,001.32

Value

$693.18

PnL

-$308.14

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

PaddyAlphaARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$532.14

Value

$575.92

PnL

+$43.78

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

Both legs:

Yes$563.9817.1¢+$41.92

No$146.7685.9¢+$1.86

0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$406.25

PnL

+$421.88

Record

49%

112-118 (230)

GonTanaka

Invested

$1,132.14

Value

$268.15

PnL

+$112.51

Record

57%

173-128 (301)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$228.64

Value

$258.46

PnL

+$29.82

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

8dcc906a9bCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.95

Value

$69.02

PnL

-$2.65

Record

32%

50-104 (154)

UbuntuTradingCTR

Yes

Invested

$144

Value

$54

PnL

-$1

Record

57%

3069-2356 (5425)

Jest55<$100

Invested

$33.28

Value

$37.2

PnL

+$3.93

Record

75%

1028-338 (1366)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 27 top traders (52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

2985h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

52% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (17 on Yes) and the top 1000 (19 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 60% · 15

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 53% · 17

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.5%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.