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9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 93¢ · $38K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$37.6K

Combined PnL

$8.5K

Smart Money Entry

46¢ → 92.5¢

+101% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 93%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$35.9K

Total Shares39,009

Combined PnL+$17.4K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares21,006

Combined PnL$-9.0K

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 71% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516	Noavg 38.2¢	$11.8K	$26.9K	+$15.8K	49% 112-118 (230)
SK skibabiba	Noavg 82¢	$3.1K	$3.5K	+$399	87% 95-14 (109)
PMTraderAdam	Noavg 60¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$146.3	77% 830-249 (1079)
CO cowcatCTR	Yesavg 49.2¢	$2.5K	$1.5K	$-8.2K	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
LA Lasting-Dessert	Noavg 81¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$139.29	89% 563-67 (630)
GollumGekko	Noavg 64¢	$990.16	$1.1K	+$89.77	68% 2074-958 (3032)
RememberAmalek	Noavg 34.5¢	$347.71	$928.26	+$580.55	56% 973-770 (1743)
LJ LJa7io23MCv954j	Noavg 67.5¢	$248.54	$341.49	+$92.95	64% 85-47 (132)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 68¢	$150.96	$204.24	+$53.28	89% 4653-547 (5200)
PU PutsOnPeace	Noavg 45.2¢	$88.66	$183.98	+$95.33	66% 955-482 (1437)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR	Yesavg 53¢	$3.63	$82.98	-$528.6	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
NadmiCTR	Yesavg 12.2¢	$125.63	$82.47	-$43.16	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
BloodyMummerCTR	Yesavg 52¢	$208	$32	-$178	77% 557-167 (724)
0X 0xbF4d202382CTR<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$5.2	$0.8	-$4.4	71% 301-120 (421)
crypto-basenjiCTR<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$1.44	$0.21	-$1.25	37% 176-294 (470)

0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516

Invested

$11,822.44

Value

$26.9K

PnL

+$15.8K

Record

49%

112-118 (230)

skibabiba

Invested

$3,115.98

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$399

Record

87%

95-14 (109)

PMTraderAdam

Invested

$1,426.24

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$146.3

Record

77%

830-249 (1079)

cowcatCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,477.54

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-8.2K

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

Lasting-Dessert

Invested

$1,025.67

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$139.29

Record

89%

563-67 (630)

GollumGekko

Invested

$990.16

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$89.77

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

RememberAmalek

Invested

$347.71

Value

$928.26

PnL

+$580.55

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

LJa7io23MCv954j

Invested

$248.54

Value

$341.49

PnL

+$92.95

Record

64%

85-47 (132)

nonkenny90

Invested

$150.96

Value

$204.24

PnL

+$53.28

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

PutsOnPeace

Invested

$88.66

Value

$183.98

PnL

+$95.33

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

peepeepooppoopCTR

Yes

Invested

$3.63

Value

$82.98

PnL

-$528.6

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

NadmiCTR

Yes

Invested

$125.63

Value

$82.47

PnL

-$43.16

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

BloodyMummerCTR

Yes

Invested

$208

Value

$32

PnL

-$178

Record

77%

557-167 (724)

0xbF4d202382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.2

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$4.4

Record

71%

301-120 (421)

crypto-basenjiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.44

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$1.25

Record

37%

176-294 (470)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 93%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 71% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.