UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 90¢ · $18K held · ends Dec 31

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$17.9K

Combined PnL

$-3.3K

Smart Money Entry

79¢ → 90¢

+14% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$14.4K

Total Shares15,965

Combined PnL+$761.59

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares35,065

Combined PnL$-4.1K

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

2673h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

28 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (8 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 78.4¢	$8.5K	$8.8K	+$228.91	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
MEPP	Noavg 78.7¢	$3.2K	$3.5K	+$350.11	64% 633-352 (985)
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 18.3¢	$2.5K	$1.8K	-$689.69	56% 836-645 (1481)
tetrase	Noavg 84.6¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$82.81	61% 839-544 (1383)
GollumGekkoCTR	Yesavg 30.4¢	$3.7K	$1.2K	$-2.5K	68% 2074-958 (3032)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 74.5¢	$471.41	$569.69	+$98.28	89% 4653-547 (5200)
0X 0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516CTR	Yesavg 35.1¢	$1,000	$285.19	-$714.81	49% 112-118 (230)
Warren-BuffettCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$210	$100	-$110	65% 862-465 (1327)
57 57284910<$100	Noavg 89¢	$89	$90	+$1	100% 23-0 (23)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 83.1¢	$45.32	$45.8	+$0.49	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
Valen9CTR	Yesavg 39¢	$123.79	$31.74	-$92.05	60% 407-274 (681)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$8,541.16

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$228.91

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

MEPP

Invested

$3,165.72

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$350.11

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,538.22

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$689.69

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

tetrase

Invested

$1,294.2

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$82.81

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

GollumGekkoCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,703.55

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

nonkenny90

Invested

$471.41

Value

$569.69

PnL

+$98.28

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$285.19

PnL

-$714.81

Record

49%

112-118 (230)

Warren-BuffettCTR

Yes

Invested

$210

Value

$100

PnL

-$110

Record

65%

862-465 (1327)

57284910<$100

Invested

$89

Value

$90

PnL

+$1

Record

100%

23-0 (23)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$45.32

Value

$45.8

PnL

+$0.49

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

Valen9CTR

Yes

Invested

$123.79

Value

$31.74

PnL

-$92.05

Record

60%

407-274 (681)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

2673h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

28 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (8 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.0%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.