Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (65%) · No at 93¢ · $45K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
🔬
Research candidate
No
17
No 65%
$45.3K
$-8.3K
64.6¢ → 92.5¢
+43% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 93%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 17 top traders (65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
11 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Late
815h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
9 consensus flips
65% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 55.9¢ | $15.3K | $22.8K | +$7.5K | 56% 15371-11922 (27293) |
ST stupid22 | Noavg 90¢ | $4.4K | $4.5K | +$48.94 | 94% 411-26 (437) |
 tetrase | Noavg 86.2¢ | $3.5K | $3.8K | +$238.46 | 61% 839-543 (1382) |
WA wan123 | Noavg 71.7¢ | $2.7K | $3.5K | +$784.55 | 39% 196-304 (500) |
 betwickCTR | Yesavg 50.5¢ | $23.2K | $3.4K | $-18.9K | 55% 352-292 (644) |
 vinii | Noavg 67.3¢ | $2.3K | $3.0K | +$797.92 | 74% 2792-1003 (3795) |
 eCash | Noavg 51¢ | $814.3 | $2.3K | +$1.0K | 68% 330-155 (485) |
 mountaindewd | Noavg 53¢ | $530 | $925 | +$390 | 54% 344-290 (634) |
 PMTraderAdam | Noavg 83¢ | $249 | $277.5 | +$27 | 77% 830-249 (1079) |
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 84.6¢ | $247.09 | $270.1 | +$21.55 | 89% 4652-547 (5199) |
0X 0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516 | Noavg 57¢ | $100 | $162.28 | +$60.53 | 49% 112-118 (230) |
 paddaaCTR | Yesavg 15.4¢ | $294 | $142.92 | -$151.08 | 56% 836-644 (1480) |
 AgricultureSecretaryCTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $123.22 | $92.41 | -$30.8 | 83% 3802-801 (4603) |
 TheKinginYellow<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $61.5 | $75.85 | +$14.35 | 68% 830-398 (1228) |
 CarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $35.74 | $26.8 | -$8.93 | 67% 4164-2026 (6190) |
CO cocococococoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $28.31 | $4.16 | -$24.14 | 52% 1665-1535 (3200) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $2.69 | $3.36 | +$0.67 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$15,338.37
Value
$22.8K
PnL
+$7.5K
Record
56%
15371-11922 (27293)
Invested
$4,402.58
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$48.94
Record
94%
411-26 (437)
tetraseInvested
$3,522.05
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$238.46
Record
61%
839-543 (1382)
Invested
$2,697.46
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$784.55
Record
39%
196-304 (500)
betwickCTRInvested
$23,166.81
Value
$3.4K
PnL
$-18.9K
Record
55%
352-292 (644)
viniiInvested
$2,281.8
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$797.92
Record
74%
2792-1003 (3795)
eCashInvested
$814.3
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
68%
330-155 (485)
mountaindewdInvested
$530
Value
$925
PnL
+$390
Record
54%
344-290 (634)
PMTraderAdamInvested
$249
Value
$277.5
PnL
+$27
Record
77%
830-249 (1079)
Invested
$247.09
Value
$270.1
PnL
+$21.55
Record
89%
4652-547 (5199)
Invested
$100
Value
$162.28
PnL
+$60.53
Record
49%
112-118 (230)
paddaaCTRInvested
$294
Value
$142.92
PnL
-$151.08
Record
56%
836-644 (1480)
AgricultureSecretaryCTRInvested
$123.22
Value
$92.41
PnL
-$30.8
Record
83%
3802-801 (4603)
TheKinginYellow<$100Invested
$61.5
Value
$75.85
PnL
+$14.35
Record
68%
830-398 (1228)
CarCTR<$100Invested
$35.74
Value
$26.8
PnL
-$8.93
Record
67%
4164-2026 (6190)
Invested
$28.31
Value
$4.16
PnL
-$24.14
Record
52%
1665-1535 (3200)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$2.69
Value
$3.36
PnL
+$0.67
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.