Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 74¢ · $10K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

$182.68

Smart Money Entry

70.8¢ → 74¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares8,909

Combined PnL+$209.54

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares6,746

Combined PnL-$26.86

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

2601h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516	Noavg 70.4¢	$4.3K	$4.5K	+$161.66	49% 112-118 (230)
PaddyAlphaARB<$100	Yesavg 26.1¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$32.73	59% 986-684 (1670)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26.1¢	$752.03	$749.33	+$29.07
└ No leg	Noavg 71.3¢	$732.54	$747.66	+$3.66
StarMaster	Noavg 72.9¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$16.3	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
CA cashyCTR	Yesavg 27.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$53.45	71% 611-251 (862)
SirHarryOakes	Noavg 69.4¢	$500	$524.52	+$29.57	84% 215-41 (256)
NadmiCTR	Yesavg 17.3¢	$167.72	$260.01	+$92.29	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 31.1¢	$173.38	$153.1	-$20.28	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
RelaccsedCTR	Yesavg 30¢	$120.03	$104.03	-$14	56% 1213-967 (2180)
Tenebrus7CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$66.08	$61.75	-$4.33	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
DebosnysCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$66.6	$57.72	-$7.77	89% 1868-225 (2093)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Yesavg 36.7¢	$66.21	$46.91	-$19.31	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 66¢	$33.7	$35.71	+$2.01	56% 14240-11046 (25286)

0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516

Invested

$4,320

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$161.66

Record

49%

112-118 (230)

PaddyAlphaARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,464.26

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$32.73

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

Both legs:

Yes$752.0326.1¢+$29.07

No$732.5471.3¢+$3.66

StarMaster

Invested

$1,439.7

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$16.3

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

cashyCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,123.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$53.45

Record

71%

611-251 (862)

SirHarryOakes

Invested

$500

Value

$524.52

PnL

+$29.57

Record

84%

215-41 (256)

NadmiCTR

Yes

Invested

$167.72

Value

$260.01

PnL

+$92.29

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$173.38

Value

$153.1

PnL

-$20.28

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

RelaccsedCTR

Yes

Invested

$120.03

Value

$104.03

PnL

-$14

Record

56%

1213-967 (2180)

Tenebrus7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.08

Value

$61.75

PnL

-$4.33

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

DebosnysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.6

Value

$57.72

PnL

-$7.77

Record

89%

1868-225 (2093)

lissartterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.21

Value

$46.91

PnL

-$19.31

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.7

Value

$35.71

PnL

+$2.01

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

2601h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.