Consensus PnL $99K · win rate 24% (382–1202, n=1584) · PM monthly #460 · holds 46 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$99.3K
Record
382W / 1202L
Win Rate
24.0%
of 1584 settled
Batting Avg
51.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2675
Source
PM monthly #460
Record (90 d)
285/651 · 44%
Trades
7,858
Markets
2,710
Volume
$3.6M
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Top consensus positions
46 in listed consensus markets · 41 of 46 on the consensus side (89%)- Will xAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes $1.2K · now 26¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 23)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HouseNo $277 · now 99¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (35% of 37)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $265 · now 96¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (70% of 115)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseNo $228 · now 83¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (16% of 71)
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $81 · now 78¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (71% of 120)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNo $66 · now 24¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $24 · now 23¢ · in at 22¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Aviv Kohavi be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $4 · now 0¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (100% of 30)
Specialties
1,359 settled consensus markets · held side won 38% at an average entry of 40¢- College Basketball
+5 pts
side won 92% of 12 · avg entry 87¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 32% of 448 at an average 35¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI +4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 58%(won 1% of 795)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 35% of 34)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 53% of 40)
- 70¢ and up: 36%(won 97% of 490)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.