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PolyConsensus
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Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 53 of 53 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will xAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

53 of 53 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 26¢ · $37K held · ends Dec 31

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket
SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

53

Yes 100%

Total Value

$37.1K

Combined PnL

$35.3K

Smart Money Entry

1.2¢ → 25.5¢

+2068% since entry · 52 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

  • Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

53 of 53 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)53 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%
No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes53 traders
Total Value$37.1K
Total Shares145,317
Combined PnL+$35.3K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

53 traders

Top 2 hold 32%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 32% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians
whaleYes 100% · 6
Aligned
sharpYes 100% · 5
Aligned
ctrYes 100% · 19
Aligned
Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4
Aligned
Top 1000Yes 100% · 52
Aligned
BI
BiggggggggCTR
Yes

Invested

$228.85

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$5.9K

Record

43%

3030-3984 (7014)

E4
e46m3CTR
Yes

Invested

$304.97

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$5.5K

Record

72%

12562-4974 (17536)

balthazarCTR
Yes

Invested

$200.07

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

54%

26656-22371 (49027)

tetroseCTR
Yes

Invested

$29.68

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

42%

190-266 (456)

QW
qwen300.fundCTR
Yes

Invested

$126.11

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

59%

10646-7317 (17963)

0X
0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2CTR
Yes

Invested

$63.05

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

29%

646-1593 (2239)

0X
0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR
Yes

Invested

$47.12

Value

$889.19

PnL

+$842.07

Record

53%

6371-5605 (11976)

LucerysCTR
Yes

Invested

$44.94

Value

$848.22

PnL

+$803.28

Record

79%

11628-3057 (14685)

CI
cigarettesCTR
Yes

Invested

$43.76

Value

$825.74

PnL

+$781.98

Record

54%

21867-18991 (40858)

KA
kaxel78CTR
Yes

Invested

$40.59

Value

$766.02

PnL

+$725.42

Record

28%

328-850 (1178)

VI
VictorLudorumCTR
Yes

Invested

$39.25

Value

$740.82

PnL

+$701.57

Record

53%

6105-5421 (11526)

AL
alex20011CTR
Yes

Invested

$32.99

Value

$622.6

PnL

+$589.6

Record

43%

3626-4894 (8520)

PO
pollo07CTR
Yes

Invested

$32.99

Value

$622.6

PnL

+$589.6

Record

30%

368-868 (1236)

AK
akrollCTR
Yes

Invested

$32.99

Value

$622.6

PnL

+$589.6

Record

29%

372-896 (1268)

KL
klli27CTR
Yes

Invested

$32.99

Value

$622.6

PnL

+$589.6

Record

29%

356-871 (1227)

AN
anothercoinCTR
Yes

Invested

$2,025

Value

$516.38

PnL

+$489.01

Record

51%

463-441 (904)

WA
WarriorHCTR
Yes

Invested

$27.07

Value

$510.74

PnL

+$483.68

Record

17%

1059-5137 (6196)

KO
korda77CTR
Yes

Invested

$25.48

Value

$506.79

PnL

+$481.31

Record

45%

5732-6978 (12710)

SM
smallreceiptCTR
Yes

Invested

$25.6

Value

$489.62

PnL

+$464.03

Record

49%

8165-8416 (16581)

PL
plainfolderCTR
Yes

Invested

$1,894.5

Value

$483.1

PnL

+$457.85

Record

32%

3307-6889 (10196)

ZE
zerone777CTR
Yes

Invested

$24.64

Value

$464.97

PnL

+$440.33

Record

37%

454-779 (1233)

GR
graynotebook19CTR
Yes

Invested

$23.49

Value

$446.35

PnL

+$422.86

Record

62%

13204-8184 (21388)

AH
aHjCzCTR
Yes

Invested

$23.62

Value

$445.8

PnL

+$422.18

Record

40%

5247-8008 (13255)

RA
ratedCTR
Yes

Invested

$21.76

Value

$423.05

PnL

+$400.48

Record

29%

2880-7025 (9905)

0X
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR
Yes

Invested

$21.72

Value

$409.79

PnL

+$388.07

Record

40%

972-1439 (2411)

Chat

EV Calculator

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Break-even chance27.3%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$266.58
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
366.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.

Market Info

Condition ID
0x3c70ee27...e1ecfc
Slug
will-xai-have-the-highest-ipo-market-cap-2026-116

Traders in this Market

BI

Bigggggggg

CTR

Yes — $6.1K

+$5.9K
E4

e46m3

CTR

Yes — $5.8K

+$5.5K

balthazar

CTR

Yes — $3.8K

+$3.6K

tetrose

CTR

Yes — $3.1K

+$3.1K
QW

qwen300.fund

CTR

Yes — $2.4K

+$2.3K
0X

0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2

CTR

Yes — $1.2K

+$1.1K
0X

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060

CTR

Yes — $889.19

+$842.07

Lucerys

CTR

Yes — $848.22

+$803.28
CI

cigarettes

CTR

Yes — $825.74

+$781.98
KA

kaxel78

CTR

Yes — $766.02

+$725.42
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