Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 14 of 38 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5

14 of 38 top Polymarket traders hold Over (37%) · Over at 47¢ · $80K held · ended Nov 12

Over47¢Under53¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 37%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$79.5K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

57.4¢ → 46.5¢

-19% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

14 of 38 top traders (37%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over14 traders

Total Value$38.2K

Total Shares73,335

Combined PnL$-5.3K

Under24 traders

Total Value$36.3K

Total Shares63,801

Combined PnL+$6.5K

Over — 37%Under — 63%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

34% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 65% · 20

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 65% · 31

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST stuttigCTR	Overavg 64¢	$28.7K	$23.1K	$-5.6K	— 8-1 (9)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 36.2¢	$8.4K	$10.8K	+$2.6K	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 47.2¢	$7.7K	$7.6K	-$53.97	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
MA marvelousmarvin	Underavg 53¢	$6.5K	$6.5K	+$61.07	29% 16-39 (55)
nehcnehc	Underavg 51¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$0	26% 22-64 (86)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 49¢	$4.6K	$4.6K	+$18.23	57% 3276-2473 (5749)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 41.4¢	$2.8K	$3.5K	+$815.67	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Underavg 36¢	$1.8K	$2.9K	+$1.1K	31% 242-544 (786)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Underavg 36¢	$1.6K	$2.5K	+$910.41	60% 2757-1855 (4612)
CUTJALENHURTS	Underavg 36¢	$1.5K	$2.1K	+$657.87	52% 2592-2431 (5023)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 43.3¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$192.78	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.3¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$272.18
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.5¢	$606.98	$527.57	-$79.41
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 57.6¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$191.39	46% 200-233 (433)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.3¢	$698.37	$652.48	-$45.9
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.6¢	$753.85	$608.36	-$145.49
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 51.2¢	$847.63	$852.09	+$4.45	59% 3484-2373 (5857)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.2¢	$427.63	$488.96	+$61.33
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$420	$363.13	-$56.88
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 34.9¢	$1.0K	$768.83	+$536.41	39% 233-367 (600)
TO tomb2456CTR	Overavg 42¢	$840	$680	-$160	50% 22-22 (44)
alpheclabs2	Underavg 64.2¢	$779.13	$655.16	-$123.98	44% 143-184 (327)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$550.36	$561.68	+$11.32	22% 106-387 (493)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$375.36	$383.18	+$7.82
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$175	$178.5	+$3.5
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 52.6¢	$506.22	$447.23	-$58.99	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
FE ferdinand2	Underavg 36.2¢	$344.72	$430.53	+$144.68	49% 973-998 (1971)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 46.1¢	$339.91	$416.2	+$76.29	31% 441-967 (1408)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$461.07	$400.56	+$17.3	32% 444-952 (1396)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$316.98	$320.22	+$10.44
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.2¢	$73.48	$80.34	+$6.86
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 48.9¢	$386.12	$327.43	-$58.69	40% 438-657 (1095)
VE Venusian	Underavg 40.4¢	$210.41	$278.32	+$67.91	31% 444-971 (1415)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 49.3¢	$727.23	$267.74	+$55.08	55% 843-701 (1544)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 50¢	$194.49	$227.55	+$33.06	16% 58-313 (371)

stuttigCTR

Over

Invested

$28,696.31

Value

$23.1K

PnL

$-5.6K

Record

—

8-1 (9)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$8,356.18

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$7,670.85

Value

$7.6K

PnL

-$53.97

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

marvelousmarvin

Under

Invested

$6,473.62

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$61.07

Record

29%

16-39 (55)

nehcnehc

Under

Invested

$4,729.74

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

26%

22-64 (86)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$4,563.79

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$18.23

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$2,848.37

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$815.67

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Under

Invested

$1,793.8

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

31%

242-544 (786)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Under

Invested

$1,598.76

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$910.41

Record

60%

2757-1855 (4612)

CUTJALENHURTS

Under

Invested

$1,480.21

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$657.87

Record

52%

2592-2431 (5023)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,760.48

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$192.78

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Both legs:

Under$1,153.5143.3¢+$272.18

Over$606.9853.5¢-$79.41

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,452.22

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$191.39

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

Both legs:

Under$698.3757.3¢-$45.9

Over$753.8557.6¢-$145.49

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$847.63

Value

$852.09

PnL

+$4.45

Record

59%

3484-2373 (5857)

Both legs:

Under$427.6351.2¢+$61.33

Over$42048¢-$56.88

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$1,041.71

Value

$768.83

PnL

+$536.41

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

tomb2456CTR

Over

Invested

$840

Value

$680

PnL

-$160

Record

50%

22-22 (44)

alpheclabs2

Under

Invested

$779.13

Value

$655.16

PnL

-$123.98

Record

44%

143-184 (327)

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$550.36

Value

$561.68

PnL

+$11.32

Record

22%

106-387 (493)

Both legs:

Invested

$506.22

Value

$447.23

PnL

-$58.99

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

ferdinand2

Under

Invested

$344.72

Value

$430.53

PnL

+$144.68

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$339.91

Value

$416.2

PnL

+$76.29

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$461.07

Value

$400.56

PnL

+$17.3

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

Both legs:

Over$316.9849¢+$10.44

Under$73.4846.2¢+$6.86

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$386.12

Value

$327.43

PnL

-$58.69

Record

40%

438-657 (1095)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$210.41

Value

$278.32

PnL

+$67.91

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$727.23

Value

$267.74

PnL

+$55.08

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$194.49

Value

$227.55

PnL

+$33.06

Record

16%

58-313 (371)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

14 of 38 top traders (37%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

34% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 65% · 20

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 65% · 31

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.