Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FK Austria Wien end in a draw?

4 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (21%) · Yes at 61¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 11

Yes61¢No39¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 21%

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

-$842.6

Smart Money Entry

62.4¢ → 61¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 19 top traders (21%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes61%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares15,116

Combined PnL+$285.15

No15 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares6,957

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Yes — 21%No — 79%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO roscoff	Yesavg 75.5¢	$7.4K	$5.9K	$-1.4K	51% 39-38 (77)
itoney17	Yesavg 35¢	$1.7K	$3.4K	+$1.7K	—
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 58.4¢	$2.2K	$1.1K	$-1.0K	35% 176-320 (496)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 76.9¢	$754.52	$578.59	-$175.92	50% 1390-1407 (2797)
WH whosay	Yesavg 68.5¢	$357.47	$318.5	-$38.97	— 12-6 (18)
CI cigarettesCTR	Noavg 28¢	$146.36	$163.95	+$17.58	52% 5322-4827 (10149)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR	Noavg 23.9¢	$103.71	$123.87	+$20.16	32% 205-443 (648)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 20.1¢	$60.31	$73.5	+$13.19	17% 12-60 (72)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 26.1¢	$48.48	$63.74	+$15.26	38% 173-282 (455)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 30.4¢	$50.05	$58.44	+$8.38	34% 199-384 (583)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 25.4¢	$51.09	$51.33	+$0.24	31% 190-424 (614)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 77¢	$50.08	$51.06	+$0.98	30% 160-379 (539)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 29.6¢	$45.08	$49.76	+$4.68	37% 190-317 (507)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$55.45	$48.71	-$6.73	43% 2552-3349 (5901)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 26.5¢	$43.06	$46.37	+$3.31	36% 521-909 (1430)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Noavg 24.5¢	$26.75	$36.95	+$10.2	68% 1590-741 (2331)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$30.2	$30.39	+$1.19	48% 220-236 (456)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 30.8¢	$11.5	$12.69	+$1.19	28% 2449-6153 (8602)
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100	Noavg 70¢	$3.5	$3.93	+$0.43	—

roscoff

Yes

Invested

$7,350.05

Value

$5.9K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

51%

39-38 (77)

itoney17

Yes

Invested

$1,674.46

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

—

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$2,156.76

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

35%

176-320 (496)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$754.52

Value

$578.59

PnL

-$175.92

Record

50%

1390-1407 (2797)

whosay

Yes

Invested

$357.47

Value

$318.5

PnL

-$38.97

Record

—

12-6 (18)

cigarettesCTR

Invested

$146.36

Value

$163.95

PnL

+$17.58

Record

52%

5322-4827 (10149)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR

Invested

$103.71

Value

$123.87

PnL

+$20.16

Record

32%

205-443 (648)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$60.31

Value

$73.5

PnL

+$13.19

Record

17%

12-60 (72)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$48.48

Value

$63.74

PnL

+$15.26

Record

38%

173-282 (455)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$50.05

Value

$58.44

PnL

+$8.38

Record

34%

199-384 (583)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$51.09

Value

$51.33

PnL

+$0.24

Record

31%

190-424 (614)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$50.08

Value

$51.06

PnL

+$0.98

Record

30%

160-379 (539)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$45.08

Value

$49.76

PnL

+$4.68

Record

37%

190-317 (507)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.45

Value

$48.71

PnL

-$6.73

Record

43%

2552-3349 (5901)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$43.06

Value

$46.37

PnL

+$3.31

Record

36%

521-909 (1430)

RLWGCTR<$100

Invested

$26.75

Value

$36.95

PnL

+$10.2

Record

68%

1590-741 (2331)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$30.2

Value

$30.39

PnL

+$1.19

Record

48%

220-236 (456)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$11.5

Value

$12.69

PnL

+$1.19

Record

28%

2449-6153 (8602)

BlackMamba08CTR<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.93

PnL

+$0.43

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralYes at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 19 top traders (21%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.