Spread: FK Austria Wien (-1.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Sport Lisboa e Benfica (44%) · Sport Lisboa e Benfica at 96¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 11

FK Austria Wien4¢Sport Lisboa e Benfica96¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Consensus Traders

Sport Lisboa e Benfica 44%

Total Value

$13.2K

Combined PnL

$489.18

Smart Money Entry

91.1¢ → 95.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSport Lisboa e Benfica at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FK Austria Wien4%

Sport Lisboa e Benfica96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sport Lisboa e Benfica4 traders

Total Value$13.2K

Total Shares13,773

Combined PnL+$598.19

FK Austria Wien5 traders

Total Value$71.98

Total Shares2,007

Combined PnL-$109.01

Sport Lisboa e Benfica — 44%FK Austria Wien — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFK Austria Wien 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrFK Austria Wien 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000FK Austria Wien 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 92.6¢	$11.7K	$12.1K	+$352.3	51% 1818-1779 (3597)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 71¢	$710	$954	+$244	96% 53-2 (55)
SE sentrio<$100	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 93.1¢	$71.02	$72.77	+$1.75	37% 339-567 (906)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 95.1¢	$49.91	$50.05	+$0.14	41% 3116-4481 (7597)
JA JabJabichCTR	FK Austria Wienavg 10¢	$100	$35.87	-$64.13	0% 0-35 (35)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	FK Austria Wienavg 8.6¢	$72.6	$30.13	-$42.47	12% 21-154 (175)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	FK Austria Wienavg 3.6¢	$5.17	$5.15	-$0.01	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100	FK Austria Wienavg 14¢	$1.61	$0.41	-$1.2	— 2-3 (5)
WH whosayCTR<$100	FK Austria Wienavg 14¢	$1.61	$0.41	-$1.2	69% 18-8 (26)

Flaznorp

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$11,732.76

Value

$12.1K

PnL

+$352.3

Record

51%

1818-1779 (3597)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$710

Value

$954

PnL

+$244

Record

96%

53-2 (55)

sentrio<$100

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$71.02

Value

$72.77

PnL

+$1.75

Record

37%

339-567 (906)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$49.91

Value

$50.05

PnL

+$0.14

Record

41%

3116-4481 (7597)

JabJabichCTR

FK Austria Wien

Invested

$100

Value

$35.87

PnL

-$64.13

Record

0-35 (35)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

FK Austria Wien

Invested

$72.6

Value

$30.13

PnL

-$42.47

Record

12%

21-154 (175)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

FK Austria Wien

Invested

$5.17

Value

$5.15

PnL

-$0.01

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

BlackMamba08CTR<$100

FK Austria Wien

Invested

$1.61

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$1.2

Record

—

2-3 (5)

whosayCTR<$100

FK Austria Wien

Invested

$1.61

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$1.2

Record

69%

18-8 (26)

Research grade

NeutralSport Lisboa e Benfica at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFK Austria Wien 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrFK Austria Wien 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000FK Austria Wien 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sport Lisboa e Benfica wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.