Spurs vs. Bulls

20 of 37 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (54%) · Spurs at 87¢ · $374K held · ended Nov 12

Spurs87¢Bulls13¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$373.7K

Combined PnL

$852.19

Smart Money Entry

90¢ → 86.5¢

-4% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

20 of 37 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Spurs87%

Bulls14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs20 traders

Total Value$335.7K

Total Shares371,895

Combined PnL-$184.33

Bulls17 traders

Total Value$37.9K

Total Shares368,390

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Spurs — 54%Bulls — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Bulls) and the top 1000 (19 on Spurs) disagree here.

whaleSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSpurs 57% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Spurs 79% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Spursavg 90¢	$216.4K	$217.6K	+$1.2K	42% 583-818 (1401)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Spursavg 90¢	$44.3K	$42.6K	$-1.7K	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Bullsavg 10¢	$27.6K	$26.2K	$-1.4K	48% 101-110 (211)
DA darkumbreon88	Spursavg 90¢	$20.2K	$20.4K	+$224.45	61% 929-595 (1524)
HO HomeRunHazard	Spursavg 89.9¢	$12.1K	$12.2K	+$76.54	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Spursavg 90¢	$10.3K	$10.4K	+$114.75	48% 536-588 (1124)
nehcnehc	Spursavg 90.5¢	$9.7K	$9.8K	+$52.54	25% 21-63 (84)
SA Sassy-BucketCTR	Bullsavg 10¢	$6.7K	$9.1K	+$2.4K	30% 6-14 (20)
65 6512395314597884	Spursavg 89.5¢	$6.2K	$6.0K	-$191.53	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
RN1	Spursavg 89.4¢	$4.5K	$4.3K	-$5.66	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
UB ubetteruuuu	Spursavg 88¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$64.77	14% 18-113 (131)
PU purplegatto	Spursavg 88.9¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$62.78	69% 2587-1182 (3769)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Spursavg 88.2¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$15.66	56% 3875-3035 (6910)
38 38791873984189	Spursavg 89.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$6.8	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
Medo3DCTR	Bullsavg 10¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	9% 24-237 (261)
NM NM-P	Spursavg 90¢	$945	$955	+$10	59% 3478-2370 (5848)
GC GC-P	Spursavg 90¢	$945	$955	+$10	20% 99-384 (483)
0xheavy888	Spursavg 90¢	$450	$455	+$5	55% 205-165 (370)
AN Anon455CTR	Bullsavg 11.7¢	$386.69	$413.51	+$26.82	45% 183-223 (406)
BA bands1CTR	Bullsavg 9¢	$273.39	$288.58	+$15.19	50% 335-331 (666)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bullsavg 9¢	$216.9	$216.9	+$0	52% 497-452 (949)
0X 0xfFFF6537CTR	Bullsavg 11¢	$224	$214.2	-$9.8	25% 22-66 (88)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Bullsavg 11.2¢	$189.37	$211.71	+$22.34	55% 719-584 (1303)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Spursavg 90¢	$100	$101.11	+$1.11	41% 3164-4511 (7675)
PA Pan9X	Spursavg 89.7¢	$222.79	$100.2	-$2.36	49% 692-733 (1425)

BreakTheBank

Spurs

Invested

$216,367.02

Value

$217.6K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

42%

583-818 (1401)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Spurs

Invested

$44,321.31

Value

$42.6K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Bulls

Invested

$27,619.68

Value

$26.2K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

48%

101-110 (211)

darkumbreon88

Spurs

Invested

$20,201.61

Value

$20.4K

PnL

+$224.45

Record

61%

929-595 (1524)

HomeRunHazard

Spurs

Invested

$12,131.09

Value

$12.2K

PnL

+$76.54

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

Multicoloured-Serf

Spurs

Invested

$10,328

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$114.75

Record

48%

536-588 (1124)

nehcnehc

Spurs

Invested

$9,729.5

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$52.54

Record

25%

21-63 (84)

Sassy-BucketCTR

Bulls

Invested

$6,723.86

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

30%

6-14 (20)

6512395314597884

Spurs

Invested

$6,170.8

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$191.53

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

RN1

Spurs

Invested

$4,456.47

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$5.66

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

ubetteruuuu

Spurs

Invested

$3,800

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$64.77

Record

14%

18-113 (131)

purplegatto

Spurs

Invested

$2,658.44

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$62.78

Record

69%

2587-1182 (3769)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Spurs

Invested

$1,853.25

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$15.66

Record

56%

3875-3035 (6910)

38791873984189

Spurs

Invested

$1,439.74

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$6.8

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

Medo3DCTR

Bulls

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

24-237 (261)

NM-P

Spurs

Invested

$945

Value

$955

PnL

+$10

Record

59%

3478-2370 (5848)

GC-P

Spurs

Invested

$945

Value

$955

PnL

+$10

Record

20%

99-384 (483)

0xheavy888

Spurs

Invested

$450

Value

$455

PnL

+$5

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

Anon455CTR

Bulls

Invested

$386.69

Value

$413.51

PnL

+$26.82

Record

45%

183-223 (406)

bands1CTR

Bulls

Invested

$273.39

Value

$288.58

PnL

+$15.19

Record

50%

335-331 (666)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bulls

Invested

$216.9

Value

$216.9

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

0xfFFF6537CTR

Bulls

Invested

$224

Value

$214.2

PnL

-$9.8

Record

25%

22-66 (88)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Bulls

Invested

$189.37

Value

$211.71

PnL

+$22.34

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

xtxpleasecallme

Spurs

Invested

$100

Value

$101.11

PnL

+$1.11

Record

41%

3164-4511 (7675)

Pan9X

Spurs

Invested

$222.79

Value

$100.2

PnL

-$2.36

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

20 of 37 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Bulls) and the top 1000 (19 on Spurs) disagree here.

whaleSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSpurs 57% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Spurs 79% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.