Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 91¢ · $29K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$28.8K

Combined PnL

$47.56

Smart Money Entry

67.1¢ → 91¢

+36% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$26.2K

Total Shares28,824

Combined PnL+$6.9K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares28,460

Combined PnL$-6.8K

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

2024h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (7 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GL Gladius7	Noavg 66.9¢	$11.1K	$15.1K	+$4.0K	48% 90-98 (188)
JO JoeBlack01	Noavg 66.6¢	$4.4K	$6.0K	+$1.6K	60% 474-313 (787)
KR KrackenSruster	Noavg 67.7¢	$3.2K	$4.3K	+$1.1K	66% 487-255 (742)
DumplingBMFCTR	Yesavg 34.1¢	$7.6K	$1.9K	$-5.5K	68% 1830-849 (2679)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 71.4¢	$521.21	$629.72	+$144.97	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
siickCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$1.4K	$473.32	-$946.64	57% 768-580 (1348)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 68.3¢	$219.57	$281.64	+$62.07	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
PorxCTR	Yesavg 28.8¢	$326.91	$102.5	-$224.4	66% 1482-769 (2251)
10 101456CTR<$100	Yes	$59.55	$59.55	-$112.49	53% 141-126 (267)
randomWalkingShrimpCTR	Yesavg 40.6¢	$101.5	$22.5	-$79	77% 1204-366 (1570)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100	Noavg 74¢	$11.1	$13.65	+$2.78	50% 357-357 (714)
NiceDuckBroCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$31	$9	-$22	65% 335-177 (512)

Gladius7

Invested

$11,096

Value

$15.1K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

48%

90-98 (188)

JoeBlack01

Invested

$4,355.73

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

60%

474-313 (787)

KrackenSruster

Invested

$3,166.7

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

66%

487-255 (742)

DumplingBMFCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,593.09

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-5.5K

Record

68%

1830-849 (2679)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$521.21

Value

$629.72

PnL

+$144.97

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

siickCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,419.96

Value

$473.32

PnL

-$946.64

Record

57%

768-580 (1348)

ghorrock

Invested

$219.57

Value

$281.64

PnL

+$62.07

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

PorxCTR

Yes

Invested

$326.91

Value

$102.5

PnL

-$224.4

Record

66%

1482-769 (2251)

101456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.55

Value

$59.55

PnL

-$112.49

Record

53%

141-126 (267)

randomWalkingShrimpCTR

Yes

Invested

$101.5

Value

$22.5

PnL

-$79

Record

77%

1204-366 (1570)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100

Invested

$11.1

Value

$13.65

PnL

+$2.78

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

NiceDuckBroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31

Value

PnL

-$22

Record

65%

335-177 (512)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

2024h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (7 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.0%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.