Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

7 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (41%) · No at 57¢ · $18K held · ends Dec 31

Yes43¢No57¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 41%

Total Value

$18.5K

Combined PnL

$2.7K

Smart Money Entry

43.3¢ → 57.5¢

+33% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 17 top traders (41%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$13.3K

Total Shares22,788

Combined PnL+$3.1K

Yes10 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares12,354

Combined PnL-$383.67

No — 41%Yes — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

19 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 71% · 7

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 58% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MEPP	Noavg 37.9¢	$4.2K	$6.0K	+$1.7K	64% 633-352 (985)
GollumGekko	Noavg 52¢	$4.1K	$4.6K	+$510.18	68% 2074-958 (3032)
KR KrackenSruster	Noavg 39.8¢	$1.7K	$2.5K	+$786.52	66% 487-255 (742)
Roflan-ludomanCTR	Yesavg 40.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$13.68	62% 649-396 (1045)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 39.7¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$49.61	38% 567-944 (1511)
StupidMonkeyyyCTR	Yesavg 47.5¢	$682.73	$666.17	-$16.56	50% 147-145 (292)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 66.2¢	$426.62	$412.06	-$14.57	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
CarCTR	Yesavg 40¢	$349.59	$362.42	+$12.83	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
PaddyAlphaCTR	Yesavg 77.1¢	$627.18	$346.52	-$280.66	59% 986-684 (1670)
cambridgeisaacCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$200	$212.82	+$12.82	57% 1114-837 (1951)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR	Yesavg 66.9¢	$283.49	$207.49	-$75.99	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 52.1¢	$140.96	$157	+$16.04	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
10 101456CTR	Yes	$110.59	$110.59	-$65.29	53% 141-126 (267)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 52.6¢	$86.72	$92.8	+$6.07	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
Tenebrus7<$100	Noavg 45.5¢	$53.81	$53.46	-$0.36	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 15¢	$6.3	$24.57	+$18.27	18% 3833-17376 (21209)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100	Yesavg 80.6¢	$40.3	$20.75	-$19.55	50% 1537-1513 (3050)

MEPP

Invested

$4,221.09

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

GollumGekko

Invested

$4,068.93

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$510.18

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

KrackenSruster

Invested

$1,669.3

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$786.52

Record

66%

487-255 (742)

Roflan-ludomanCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,614.74

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$13.68

Record

62%

649-396 (1045)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,109.86

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$49.61

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

StupidMonkeyyyCTR

Yes

Invested

$682.73

Value

$666.17

PnL

-$16.56

Record

50%

147-145 (292)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$426.62

Value

$412.06

PnL

-$14.57

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$349.59

Value

$362.42

PnL

+$12.83

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

PaddyAlphaCTR

Yes

Invested

$627.18

Value

$346.52

PnL

-$280.66

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

cambridgeisaacCTR

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$212.82

PnL

+$12.82

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR

Yes

Invested

$283.49

Value

$207.49

PnL

-$75.99

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$140.96

Value

$157

PnL

+$16.04

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

101456CTR

Yes

Invested

$110.59

Value

$110.59

PnL

-$65.29

Record

53%

141-126 (267)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$86.72

Value

$92.8

PnL

+$6.07

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

Tenebrus7<$100

Invested

$53.81

Value

$53.46

PnL

-$0.36

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$6.3

Value

$24.57

PnL

+$18.27

Record

18%

3833-17376 (21209)

ScottyNoooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.3

Value

$20.75

PnL

-$19.55

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 17 top traders (41%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

19 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 71% · 7

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 58% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.5%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.