Consensus PnL $135K · win rate 48% (118–128, n=246) · was PM monthly #612 · holds 32 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$135.0K
Record
118W / 128L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 246 settled
Batting Avg
75.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2066
Source
PM monthly #612
Record (90 d)
5/13 · 38%
Trades
586
Markets
380
Volume
$11.6M
Top consensus positions
32 in listed consensus markets · 29 of 32 on the consensus side (91%)- Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $11K · now 14¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (94% of 18)
- Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $11K · now 14¢ · in at 2¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $10K · now 13¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (94% of 16)
- Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $5.4K · now 7¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (96% of 23)
- Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $3.7K · now 5¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 18)
- Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $1.7K · now 23¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Atlético Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $1.7K · now 2¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 9)
- Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $1.4K · now 2¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
Specialties
241 settled consensus markets · held side won 44% at an average entry of 44¢- NBA
+20 pts
side won 85% of 13 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +25%
- Soccer
+7 pts
side won 70% of 40 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +12%
- Economy
+4 pts
side won 40% of 20 · avg entry 36¢
ROI −3%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 18% of 62 at an average 24¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 46%(won 8% of 110)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 31% of 26)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 63% of 27)
- 70¢ and up: 32%(won 94% of 78)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.