Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 1.7¢ · $3K held · ends Jun 20, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, Jun 20, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$448.02

Smart Money Entry

2¢ → 1.7¢

-19% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares166,789

Combined PnL-$448.02

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

707h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
50-PenceCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$206.88	39% 158-246 (404)
Gucky-45CTR	Yes	$455.23	$455.23	+$115.28	32% 652-1414 (2066)
TN tnlCTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$600	$425	-$187.5	51% 518-491 (1009)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 2.2¢	$347.61	$258.22	-$89.39	41% 1998-2833 (4831)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$152.24	$106.69	-$45.55	41% 1295-1881 (3176)
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$89.56	$73.01	-$16.55	12% 22-166 (188)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$34	$68	-$15.61	60% 1360-889 (2249)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$15.11	$14.06	-$1.05	40% 2660-3917 (6577)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$6.1	$8.25	+$2.15	38% 495-815 (1310)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$9.52	$6.6	-$2.92	56% 3078-2425 (5503)

50-PenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,571.72

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$206.88

Record

39%

158-246 (404)

Gucky-45CTR

Yes

Invested

$455.23

Value

$455.23

PnL

+$115.28

Record

32%

652-1414 (2066)

tnlCTR

Yes

Invested

$600

Value

$425

PnL

-$187.5

Record

51%

518-491 (1009)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$347.61

Value

$258.22

PnL

-$89.39

Record

41%

1998-2833 (4831)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$152.24

Value

$106.69

PnL

-$45.55

Record

41%

1295-1881 (3176)

0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.56

Value

$73.01

PnL

-$16.55

Record

12%

22-166 (188)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34

Value

$68

PnL

-$15.61

Record

60%

1360-889 (2249)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.11

Value

$14.06

PnL

-$1.05

Record

40%

2660-3917 (6577)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.1

Value

$8.25

PnL

+$2.15

Record

38%

495-815 (1310)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.52

Value

$6.6

PnL

-$2.92

Record

56%

3078-2425 (5503)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

707h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.8%

1.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3498.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

3598.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.