Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 4.5¢ · $5K held · ends Jun 20, 2027

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Sun, Jun 20, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$574.3

Smart Money Entry

4.4¢ → 4.5¢

+3% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares101,049

Combined PnL+$574.3

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

750h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 4.6¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$28.41	41% 1295-1884 (3179)
TN tnlCTR	Yesavg 4¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$125.97	51% 519-492 (1011)
RA rainbowliliesCTR	Yes	$742.66	$742.66	+$439.11	40% 2661-3920 (6581)
KE kegliCTR	Yesavg 6¢	$290.16	$217.62	-$72.54	47% 47-53 (100)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$95.24	$180	+$84.76	60% 1361-889 (2250)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$17.2	$61.88	+$22.18	57% 17353-12958 (30311)
StarMasterCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$40	$45	+$5	53% 1871-1653 (3524)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$69.99	$45	-$25	53% 2312-2037 (4349)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$19.05	$36	+$16.95	56% 3078-2437 (5515)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$12.61	$11.35	-$1.26	45% 12937-15707 (28644)
DR DreamwireCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$4.76	$9	+$4.24	84% 2830-559 (3389)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$3.69	$6.98	+$3.28	48% 9289-10165 (19454)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,086.67

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$28.41

Record

41%

1295-1884 (3179)

tnlCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,007.75

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$125.97

Record

51%

519-492 (1011)

rainbowliliesCTR

Yes

Invested

$742.66

Value

$742.66

PnL

+$439.11

Record

40%

2661-3920 (6581)

kegliCTR

Yes

Invested

$290.16

Value

$217.62

PnL

-$72.54

Record

47%

47-53 (100)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR

Yes

Invested

$95.24

Value

$180

PnL

+$84.76

Record

60%

1361-889 (2250)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.2

Value

$61.88

PnL

+$22.18

Record

57%

17353-12958 (30311)

StarMasterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40

Value

$45

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

1871-1653 (3524)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.99

Value

$45

PnL

-$25

Record

53%

2312-2037 (4349)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.05

Value

$36

PnL

+$16.95

Record

56%

3078-2437 (5515)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.61

Value

$11.35

PnL

-$1.26

Record

45%

12937-15707 (28644)

DreamwireCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

PnL

+$4.24

Record

84%

2830-559 (3389)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.69

Value

$6.98

PnL

+$3.28

Record

48%

9289-10165 (19454)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

750h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.8%

4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1636.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

1736.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.