Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (88%). 15 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?

15 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (94%) · Yes at 13¢ · $16K held · ends Jun 20, 2027

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Sun, Jun 20, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 94%

Total Value

$15.6K

Combined PnL

$9.5K

Smart Money Entry

3¢ → 12.5¢

+323% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 16 top traders (94%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes15 traders

Total Value$14.9K

Total Shares118,894

Combined PnL+$9.5K

No1 trader

Total Value$775.67

Total Shares886

Combined PnL+$13.3

Yes — 94%No — 6%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

742h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

25 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

94% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 93% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 93% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
50-PenceCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$1.6K	$10.3K	+$8.8K	39% 158-246 (404)
thefakenickCTR	Yes	$1.1K	$854.73	-$90.6	56% 828-655 (1483)
TN tnl	Noavg 86¢	$762.37	$775.67	+$13.3	51% 518-491 (1009)
DG DG-NOCTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$73.17	$750	+$676.83	40% 653-974 (1627)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$669.14	$597.45	-$71.68	41% 1295-1881 (3176)
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR	Yesavg 2¢	$89.56	$553.13	+$463.57	12% 22-166 (188)
AN ancianoCTR	Yesavg 2.3¢	$3.9K	$529.05	+$300.46	52% 1161-1067 (2228)
KE kegliCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$280	$250	-$30	51% 47-46 (93)
RA rainbowliliesCTR	Yesavg 1.8¢	$3.0K	$249.99	-$837.07	40% 2660-3917 (6577)
GH ghorrockCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$50.51	$166.69	+$93.68	57% 17248-12904 (30152)
HOG993CTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$13.55	$138.91	+$125.36	42% 506-685 (1191)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR	Yesavg 14¢	$139.99	$125.13	-$14.86	53% 2312-2037 (4349)
StarMasterCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$140	$125	-$15	53% 1871-1653 (3524)
UbuntuTradingCTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$19.05	$100	+$80.95	56% 3078-2425 (5503)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$6.1	$62.5	+$56.4	38% 495-815 (1310)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$3.69	$19.38	+$15.68	48% 9263-10128 (19391)

50-PenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,571.72

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$8.8K

Record

39%

158-246 (404)

thefakenickCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,120.65

Value

$854.73

PnL

-$90.6

Record

56%

828-655 (1483)

tnl

Invested

$762.37

Value

$775.67

PnL

+$13.3

Record

51%

518-491 (1009)

DG-NOCTR

Yes

Invested

$73.17

Value

$750

PnL

+$676.83

Record

40%

653-974 (1627)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$669.14

Value

$597.45

PnL

-$71.68

Record

41%

1295-1881 (3176)

0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR

Yes

Invested

$89.56

Value

$553.13

PnL

+$463.57

Record

12%

22-166 (188)

ancianoCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,948.99

Value

$529.05

PnL

+$300.46

Record

52%

1161-1067 (2228)

kegliCTR

Yes

Invested

$280

Value

$250

PnL

-$30

Record

51%

47-46 (93)

rainbowliliesCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,037.07

Value

$249.99

PnL

-$837.07

Record

40%

2660-3917 (6577)

ghorrockCTR

Yes

Invested

$50.51

Value

$166.69

PnL

+$93.68

Record

57%

17248-12904 (30152)

HOG993CTR

Yes

Invested

$13.55

Value

$138.91

PnL

+$125.36

Record

42%

506-685 (1191)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR

Yes

Invested

$139.99

Value

$125.13

PnL

-$14.86

Record

53%

2312-2037 (4349)

StarMasterCTR

Yes

Invested

$140

Value

$125

PnL

-$15

Record

53%

1871-1653 (3524)

UbuntuTradingCTR

Yes

Invested

$19.05

Value

$100

PnL

+$80.95

Record

56%

3078-2425 (5503)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.1

Value

$62.5

PnL

+$56.4

Record

38%

495-815 (1310)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.69

Value

$19.38

PnL

+$15.68

Record

48%

9263-10128 (19391)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 16 top traders (94%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

742h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

25 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

94% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 93% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 93% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.1%

12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$610.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

710.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.