Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

16 of 39 top Polymarket traders hold No (41%) · No at 86¢ · $240K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 41%

Total Value

$239.5K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

78.9¢ → 85.5¢

+8% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 39 top traders (41%)23 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$224.6K

Total Shares261,349

Combined PnL+$14.4K

Yes23 traders

Total Value$14.9K

Total Shares99,452

Combined PnL$-13.3K

No — 41%Yes — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

12 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (24 on No) and the top 1000 (24 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 63% · 16

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 15

Aligned

ctrYes 88% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 58% · 24

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 24

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ImJustKen	Noavg 73.3¢	$125.3K	$139.5K	+$18.0K	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
TH thoodr	Noavg 92.4¢	$46.1K	$42.9K	$-3.4K	96% 631-24 (655)
elmcap2	Noavg 88.9¢	$21.8K	$21.0K	-$847.68	89% 1665-205 (1870)
Erasmus.CTR	Yesavg 38.8¢	$14.0K	$5.5K	$-8.5K	65% 393-215 (608)
LA Lasting-Dessert	Noavg 80¢	$4.0K	$4.3K	+$275	89% 563-67 (630)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 74.2¢	$3.7K	$3.9K	+$261.53	72% 3507-1334 (4841)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 81.1¢	$3.8K	$3.6K	-$211.88	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
Talophex	Noavg 93.3¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$195.99	91% 929-95 (1024)
studmuffin6969	Noavg 87¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$29.99	59% 1027-717 (1744)
cambridgeisaacCTR	Yesavg 15.2¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$52.2	57% 1114-837 (1951)
StarMaster	Noavg 70.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$22.5	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
Kickstand7	Noavg 47.8¢	$619.93	$1.1K	+$489.6	61% 496-318 (814)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 10.4¢	$631.95	$909.58	+$247.32	36% 190-333 (523)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yesavg 35.3¢	$2.1K	$897.64	$-1.2K	36% 2086-3721 (5807)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 34.9¢	$2.1K	$872.47	$-1.2K	47% 85-95 (180)
AV aviato	Noavg 73.4¢	$855	$860	+$5	84% 2440-449 (2889)
wish-	Noavg 88.6¢	$890.35	$846.44	-$43.91	79% 1176-319 (1495)
0X 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR	Yesavg 40.3¢	$2.2K	$821.7	$-1.4K	79% 332-89 (421)
PL plumbisCTR	Yesavg 6¢	$238.91	$597.27	+$338.45	57% 51-39 (90)
CO cocococococoCTR	Yesavg 12.8¢	$523.68	$591.12	+$67.43	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
Debosnys	Noavg 85.6¢	$517.6	$520.3	-$0.32	89% 1868-225 (2093)
cookiejarCTR	Yesavg 40¢	$1.2K	$457.97	-$778.55	69% 178-80 (258)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 5.4¢	$164.36	$457.14	+$277.54	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
TH thebug44CTR	Yesavg 7¢	$203.96	$437.06	+$218.53	33% 42-86 (128)
PMTraderAdam	Noavg 80¢	$400	$430	+$27.5	77% 830-249 (1079)

ImJustKen

Invested

$125,270.27

Value

$139.5K

PnL

+$18.0K

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

thoodr

Invested

$46,134.22

Value

$42.9K

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

elmcap2

Invested

$21,810.68

Value

$21.0K

PnL

-$847.68

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

Erasmus.CTR

Yes

Invested

$14,010.18

Value

$5.5K

PnL

$-8.5K

Record

65%

393-215 (608)

Lasting-Dessert

Invested

$3,999.99

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$275

Record

89%

563-67 (630)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$3,667

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$261.53

Record

72%

3507-1334 (4841)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$3,765.01

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$211.88

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

Talophex

Invested

$2,333.5

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$195.99

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

studmuffin6969

Invested

$1,739.99

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$29.99

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

cambridgeisaacCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,312.97

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$52.2

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

StarMaster

Invested

$1,267.5

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$22.5

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

Kickstand7

Invested

$619.93

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$489.6

Record

61%

496-318 (814)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$631.95

Value

$909.58

PnL

+$247.32

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

HerrieDavisCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,102.56

Value

$897.64

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

36%

2086-3721 (5807)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,098.75

Value

$872.47

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

47%

85-95 (180)

aviato

Invested

$855

Value

$860

PnL

+$5

Record

84%

2440-449 (2889)

wish-

Invested

$890.35

Value

$846.44

PnL

-$43.91

Record

79%

1176-319 (1495)

0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,207.36

Value

$821.7

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

79%

332-89 (421)

plumbisCTR

Yes

Invested

$238.91

Value

$597.27

PnL

+$338.45

Record

57%

51-39 (90)

cocococococoCTR

Yes

Invested

$523.68

Value

$591.12

PnL

+$67.43

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

Debosnys

Invested

$517.6

Value

$520.3

PnL

-$0.32

Record

89%

1868-225 (2093)

cookiejarCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,221.25

Value

$457.97

PnL

-$778.55

Record

69%

178-80 (258)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$164.36

Value

$457.14

PnL

+$277.54

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

thebug44CTR

Yes

Invested

$203.96

Value

$437.06

PnL

+$218.53

Record

33%

42-86 (128)

PMTraderAdam

Invested

$400

Value

$430

PnL

+$27.5

Record

77%

830-249 (1079)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 39 top traders (41%)23 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

12 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (24 on No) and the top 1000 (24 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 63% · 16

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 15

Aligned

ctrYes 88% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 58% · 24

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 24

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.