Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 87¢ · $10K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$94.89

Smart Money Entry

79.2¢ → 86.5¢

+9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares9,859

Combined PnL+$28.12

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares7,251

Combined PnL+$66.78

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

2481h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 84.9¢	$4.4K	$4.3K	-$140.58	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
paddaa	Noavg 67.2¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$2.84	56% 836-645 (1481)
HO hopedieslast	Noavg 82¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$70	59% 118-81 (199)
Warren-BuffettCTR	Yesavg 10.9¢	$603.43	$769.45	+$166.02	65% 862-465 (1327)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 56¢	$94.66	$145.37	+$49.87	89% 4653-547 (5200)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 66.4¢	$319.02	$114.72	+$51	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
RelaccsedCTR	Yesavg 15¢	$114.65	$110.82	-$7.64	56% 1213-967 (2180)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 80.8¢	$106.37	$106.04	-$0.33	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
tetraseCTR	Yesavg 32¢	$148.83	$67.44	-$86.04	61% 839-544 (1383)
8D 8dcc906a9bCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$76.61	$64.46	-$12.15	32% 50-104 (154)
Debosnys<$100	Noavg 84¢	$42	$43	+$1	89% 1868-225 (2093)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.9¢	$32.66	$39.25	+$6.59	59% 986-684 (1670)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$4,413.69

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$140.58

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

paddaa

Invested

$2,080.2

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$2.84

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

hopedieslast

Invested

$1,640

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$70

Record

59%

118-81 (199)

Warren-BuffettCTR

Yes

Invested

$603.43

Value

$769.45

PnL

+$166.02

Record

65%

862-465 (1327)

nonkenny90

Invested

$94.66

Value

$145.37

PnL

+$49.87

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$319.02

Value

$114.72

PnL

+$51

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

RelaccsedCTR

Yes

Invested

$114.65

Value

$110.82

PnL

-$7.64

Record

56%

1213-967 (2180)

ghorrock

Invested

$106.37

Value

$106.04

PnL

-$0.33

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

tetraseCTR

Yes

Invested

$148.83

Value

$67.44

PnL

-$86.04

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

8dcc906a9bCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.61

Value

$64.46

PnL

-$12.15

Record

32%

50-104 (154)

Debosnys<$100

Invested

$42

Value

$43

PnL

+$1

Record

89%

1868-225 (2093)

PaddyAlphaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.66

Value

$39.25

PnL

+$6.59

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

2481h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.5%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.