Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 94¢ · $8K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$480.44

Smart Money Entry

86.4¢ → 93.5¢

+8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 94%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares8,456

Combined PnL+$563.87

Yes4 traders

Total Value$49.47

Total Shares761

Combined PnL-$83.42

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

1951h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Valen9	Noavg 88¢	$4.4K	$4.7K	+$275	60% 407-274 (681)
LA Lasting-Dessert	Noavg 88¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$137.5	89% 563-67 (630)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 80.7¢	$334.45	$374.88	+$40.42	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 61¢	$196.42	$301.07	+$104.65	89% 4653-547 (5200)
PaddyAlpha	Noavg 81.7¢	$198.85	$205	+$6.15	59% 986-684 (1670)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100	Noavg 79¢	$26.45	$26.59	+$0.14	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
BA badatthisCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.6¢	$44.36	$19.22	-$25.14	65% 2235-1185 (3420)
8D 8dcc906a9bCTR<$100	Yes	$16.99	$16.99	-$16.99	32% 50-104 (154)
TBill1CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$33.28	$8.32	-$24.96	45% 154-188 (342)
RelaccsedCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$21.28	$4.94	-$16.34	56% 1213-967 (2180)

Valen9

Invested

$4,400

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$275

Record

60%

407-274 (681)

Lasting-Dessert

Invested

$2,200

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$137.5

Record

89%

563-67 (630)

ghorrock

Invested

$334.45

Value

$374.88

PnL

+$40.42

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

nonkenny90

Invested

$196.42

Value

$301.07

PnL

+$104.65

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

PaddyAlpha

Invested

$198.85

Value

$205

PnL

+$6.15

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100

Invested

$26.45

Value

$26.59

PnL

+$0.14

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

badatthisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.36

Value

$19.22

PnL

-$25.14

Record

65%

2235-1185 (3420)

8dcc906a9bCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.99

Value

$16.99

PnL

-$16.99

Record

32%

50-104 (154)

TBill1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.28

Value

$8.32

PnL

-$24.96

Record

45%

154-188 (342)

RelaccsedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.28

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$16.34

Record

56%

1213-967 (2180)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 94%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

1951h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.5%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.