Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?

8 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 88¢ · $58K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 36%

Total Value

$57.9K

Combined PnL

$-5.9K

Smart Money Entry

74.7¢ → 87.5¢

+17% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 22 top traders (36%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$44.4K

Total Shares50,528

Combined PnL+$6.4K

Yes14 traders

Total Value$13.6K

Total Shares104,145

Combined PnL$-12.3K

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

2313h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

19 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (15 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 15

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tetrase	Noavg 75.7¢	$19.1K	$22.0K	+$2.9K	61% 839-544 (1383)
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960	Noavg 72.4¢	$14.8K	$17.9K	+$3.1K	63% 166-99 (265)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 21¢	$9.7K	$5.9K	$-3.8K	56% 973-770 (1743)
zxdfbdfgngcxv	Noavg 77.9¢	$3.2K	$2.1K	+$182.78	82% 1758-394 (2152)
Valen9CTR	Yesavg 29¢	$4.0K	$1.8K	$-2.3K	60% 407-274 (681)
8D 8dcc906a9bCTR	Yesavg 32.5¢	$130	$1.7K	$-2.5K	32% 50-104 (154)
Warren-BuffettCTR	Yesavg 21.9¢	$2.7K	$1.5K	$-1.1K	65% 862-465 (1327)
-Yang-	Noavg 81¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$91	82% 275-61 (336)
siickCTR	Yesavg 25.3¢	$1.2K	$658.84	-$533.23	57% 768-580 (1348)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 77.8¢	$576.86	$624.67	+$47.81	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
cambridgeisaacCTR	Yesavg 35.8¢	$1.2K	$416.67	-$746.03	57% 1114-837 (1951)
GollumGekkoCTR	Yesavg 23.5¢	$540	$292.5	-$247.5	68% 2074-958 (3032)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 79.5¢	$264.08	$292.16	+$26.42	89% 4653-547 (5200)
BloodyMummerCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$480	$260	-$230	77% 557-167 (724)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 33.4¢	$616.74	$239.87	-$386.09	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
PaddyAlphaCTR	Yesavg 30¢	$365.42	$237.91	-$127.51	59% 986-684 (1670)
BR BrownBeesCTR	Yesavg 22¢	$312.14	$184.45	-$134.79	61% 67-43 (110)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 82.1¢	$129.19	$132.12	+$2.93	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
RelaccsedCTR	Yesavg 20.3¢	$194.73	$121.58	-$73.14	56% 1213-967 (2180)
PorxCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.1¢	$99	$91	-$11.5	66% 1482-769 (2251)
TheGreekTraderPMCTR	Yesavg 37¢	$140.99	$49.54	-$93.36	60% 430-285 (715)
Dr.mett<$100	Noavg 87¢	$42.61	$43.1	+$0.24	86% 1417-234 (1651)

tetrase

Invested

$19,064.96

Value

$22.0K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960

Invested

$14,846.6

Value

$17.9K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

63%

166-99 (265)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,696.45

Value

$5.9K

PnL

$-3.8K

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

zxdfbdfgngcxv

Invested

$3,168.13

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$182.78

Record

82%

1758-394 (2152)

Valen9CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,986.46

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

60%

407-274 (681)

8dcc906a9bCTR

Yes

Invested

$130

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

32%

50-104 (154)

Warren-BuffettCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,688.37

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

65%

862-465 (1327)

-Yang-

Invested

$1,133.98

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$91

Record

82%

275-61 (336)

siickCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,192.07

Value

$658.84

PnL

-$533.23

Record

57%

768-580 (1348)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$576.86

Value

$624.67

PnL

+$47.81

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

cambridgeisaacCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,162.7

Value

$416.67

PnL

-$746.03

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

GollumGekkoCTR

Yes

Invested

$540

Value

$292.5

PnL

-$247.5

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

nonkenny90

Invested

$264.08

Value

$292.16

PnL

+$26.42

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

BloodyMummerCTR

Yes

Invested

$480

Value

$260

PnL

-$230

Record

77%

557-167 (724)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$616.74

Value

$239.87

PnL

-$386.09

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

PaddyAlphaCTR

Yes

Invested

$365.42

Value

$237.91

PnL

-$127.51

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

BrownBeesCTR

Yes

Invested

$312.14

Value

$184.45

PnL

-$134.79

Record

61%

67-43 (110)

ghorrock

Invested

$129.19

Value

$132.12

PnL

+$2.93

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

RelaccsedCTR

Yes

Invested

$194.73

Value

$121.58

PnL

-$73.14

Record

56%

1213-967 (2180)

PorxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$99

Value

$91

PnL

-$11.5

Record

66%

1482-769 (2251)

TheGreekTraderPMCTR

Yes

Invested

$140.99

Value

$49.54

PnL

-$93.36

Record

60%

430-285 (715)

Dr.mett<$100

Invested

$42.61

Value

$43.1

PnL

+$0.24

Record

86%

1417-234 (1651)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 22 top traders (36%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

2313h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

19 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (15 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 15

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.