Consensus PnL $94K · win rate 51% (437–423, n=860) · PM monthly #617 · holds 22 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$93.6K
Record
437W / 423L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 860 settled
Batting Avg
60.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1132
Source
PM monthly #617
Record (90 d)
213/512 · 42%
Trades
12,388
Markets
914
Volume
$1.7M
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Top consensus positions
22 in listed consensus markets · 11 of 22 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?No $14K · now 99¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (77% of 13)
- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Yes $8.6K · now 99¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (83% of 117)
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?No $7.0K · now 88¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (60% of 20)
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?No $5.5K · now 92¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (62% of 37)
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?No $3.1K · now 78¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (48% of 27)
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?No $2.3K · now 98¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (81% of 26)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?No $2.0K · now 98¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (70% of 23)
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Yes $1.8K · now 13¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
840 settled consensus markets · held side won 49% at an average entry of 49¢- Elections
+25 pts
side won 73% of 26 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +26%
- Crypto
+12 pts
side won 76% of 29 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +22%
- Politics
+17 pts
side won 83% of 12 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +11%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 30% of 23 at an average 48¢ entry (−18 pts against the price), ROI −18%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 17%(won 16% of 141)
- 30–50¢: 40%(won 39% of 339)
- 50–70¢: 24%(won 59% of 203)
- 70¢ and up: 19%(won 87% of 157)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.