Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 4.0¢ · $23K held · ends May 30, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sun, May 30, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 70%

Total Value

$22.8K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

4¢ → 4¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$16.3K

Total Shares402,886

Combined PnL+$647.87

No3 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares6,800

Combined PnL+$465.55

Yes — 70%No — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

1136h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

9 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 3.4¢	$11.3K	$13.5K	+$2.2K	43% 561-738 (1299)
Nooserac	Noavg 89¢	$4.5K	$4.8K	+$347.5	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 5.3¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$212.29	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
MO Momo63	Noavg 88.4¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$112.53	93% 879-63 (942)
MA Marios15tCTR	Yesavg 10¢	$2.1K	$857.62	$-1.3K	49% 95-100 (195)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000	Noavg 93.6¢	$283.22	$288.74	+$5.52	42% 2258-3075 (5333)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.7¢	$69.83	$70.33	+$0.49	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
BasquetipsterCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$112	$64.39	-$47.61	68% 1674-770 (2444)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.7¢	$22.1	$16.89	-$5.21	60% 1348-884 (2232)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.1¢	$15.79	$9	-$6.78	42% 1368-1924 (3292)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$11,340.24

Value

$13.5K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

Nooserac

Invested

$4,450

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$347.5

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,991.48

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$212.29

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

Momo63

Invested

$1,326.73

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$112.53

Record

93%

879-63 (942)

Marios15tCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,117.57

Value

$857.62

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

49%

95-100 (195)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000

Invested

$283.22

Value

$288.74

PnL

+$5.52

Record

42%

2258-3075 (5333)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.83

Value

$70.33

PnL

+$0.49

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

BasquetipsterCTR

Yes

Invested

$112

Value

$64.39

PnL

-$47.61

Record

68%

1674-770 (2444)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.1

Value

$16.89

PnL

-$5.21

Record

60%

1348-884 (2232)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.79

Value

PnL

-$6.78

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

1136h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

9 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.3%

4.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1790.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

1890.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.