Will Dana F. White Jr be the next White House Press Secretary?

14 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $41K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$40.8K

Combined PnL

$501.58

Smart Money Entry

95.4¢ → 99¢

+4% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 28 top traders (50%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$40.5K

Total Shares40,864

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Yes14 traders

Total Value$310.06

Total Shares34,440

Combined PnL-$802.71

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 26

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AV aviato	Noavg 95.1¢	$12.8K	$12.7K	+$514.8	—
Tenebrus7	Noavg 97¢	$1.9K	$9.2K	+$320.36	0% 0-30 (30)
CryptoSlon	Noavg 95.7¢	$7.0K	$6.9K	+$236.12	—
WordleAddict	Noavg 94.3¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$138.53	— 0-2 (2)
4751346	Noavg 94.2¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$93.78	0% 0-27 (27)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 94¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$89.28	— 0-2 (2)
GrokEnjoyer	Noavg 91.3¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$179.69	0% 0-26 (26)
clazzy1	Noavg 93¢	$1.0K	$991	+$61	— 0-13 (13)
Lolakis	No	$964.24	$964.24	+$11.68	0% 0-29 (29)
0X 0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4	Noavg 98.8¢	$782.16	$784.66	+$2.5	—
Robbb	Noavg 97.5¢	$321.74	$327.03	+$5.29	—
CO Contestable-Parfait	Noavg 95.5¢	$186.89	$185.21	+$6.76	0% 0-63 (63)
Car	Noavg 96¢	$120	$123.88	+$3.88	— 0-1 (1)
Relaccsed<$100	Noavg 99¢	$99	$99	+$0	— 3-1 (4)
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 1.7¢	$180.15	$95.66	-$84.5	—
RA RadioCCODCTR	Yesavg 2.2¢	$190.61	$77.74	-$112.87	— 0-8 (8)
0X 0x8260615ef0604c26712870c4A803936fea38A14b-1775226049986CTR	Yesavg 5.6¢	$300	$48.2	-$251.79	— 0-6 (6)
VA VanchalkensteinCTR	Yesavg 8.7¢	$204.84	$21.16	-$183.68	— 0-5 (5)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 5.8¢	$116	$18	-$98	0% 0-177 (177)
HU hugecaulkCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$23.88	$15.33	-$8.56	— 0-8 (8)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$43.2	$11.78	-$31.42	— 1-0 (1)
aenews2CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$43.6	$10.9	-$32.7	0% 0-86 (86)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$4.52	$4.88	+$0.36	57% 16-12 (28)
DirkDiggler67CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$2.68	$2.39	-$0.29	—
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$1.03	$1.81	+$0.78	— 0-3 (3)

aviato

Invested

$12,839.79

Value

$12.7K

PnL

+$514.8

Record

—

Tenebrus7

Invested

$1,940

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$320.36

Record

0-30 (30)

CryptoSlon

Invested

$7,002.96

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$236.12

Record

—

WordleAddict

Invested

$2,886.13

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$138.53

Record

—

0-2 (2)

4751346

Invested

$1,914.69

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$93.78

Record

0-27 (27)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$1,645.97

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$89.28

Record

—

0-2 (2)

GrokEnjoyer

Invested

$2,018.5

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$179.69

Record

0-26 (26)

clazzy1

Invested

$1,000

Value

$991

PnL

+$61

Record

—

0-13 (13)

Lolakis

Invested

$964.24

Value

$964.24

PnL

+$11.68

Record

0-29 (29)

0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4

Invested

$782.16

Value

$784.66

PnL

+$2.5

Record

—

Robbb

Invested

$321.74

Value

$327.03

PnL

+$5.29

Record

—

Contestable-Parfait

Invested

$186.89

Value

$185.21

PnL

+$6.76

Record

0-63 (63)

Car

Invested

$120

Value

$123.88

PnL

+$3.88

Record

—

0-1 (1)

Relaccsed<$100

Invested

$99

Value

$99

PnL

+$0

Record

—

3-1 (4)

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$180.15

Value

$95.66

PnL

-$84.5

Record

—

RadioCCODCTR

Yes

Invested

$190.61

Value

$77.74

PnL

-$112.87

Record

—

0-8 (8)

0x8260615ef0604c26712870c4A803936fea38A14b-1775226049986CTR

Yes

Invested

$300

Value

$48.2

PnL

-$251.79

Record

—

0-6 (6)

VanchalkensteinCTR

Yes

Invested

$204.84

Value

$21.16

PnL

-$183.68

Record

—

0-5 (5)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$116

Value

$18

PnL

-$98

Record

0-177 (177)

hugecaulkCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.88

Value

$15.33

PnL

-$8.56

Record

—

0-8 (8)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.2

Value

$11.78

PnL

-$31.42

Record

—

1-0 (1)

aenews2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.6

Value

$10.9

PnL

-$32.7

Record

0-86 (86)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.52

Value

$4.88

PnL

+$0.36

Record

57%

16-12 (28)

DirkDiggler67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.68

Value

$2.39

PnL

-$0.29

Record

—

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.03

Value

$1.81

PnL

+$0.78

Record

—

0-3 (3)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 28 top traders (50%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 26

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.