Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

21 of 36 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 69¢ · $94K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$94.1K

Combined PnL

-$765.55

Smart Money Entry

71.7¢ → 68.5¢

-4% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 36 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No21 traders

Total Value$57.0K

Total Shares83,886

Combined PnL$-4.3K

Yes15 traders

Total Value$17.0K

Total Shares54,526

Combined PnL+$3.5K

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 33%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 33% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 10

Aligned

sharpNo 85% · 13

Aligned

ctrYes 58% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 24

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 25

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 68.7¢	$21.3K	$19.9K	-$333.27	18% 365-1640 (2005)
└ No leg	Noavg 68.7¢	$13.7K	$13.6K	-$178.09
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.3¢	$6.4K	$6.3K	-$155.18
MEPP	Noavg 64.1¢	$9.7K	$9.9K	+$182.27	64% 633-352 (985)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 73.9¢	$9.8K	$9.2K	-$590.12	72% 3507-1334 (4841)
AL alwaysOn	Noavg 75.3¢	$8.3K	$7.5K	-$974.58	77% 632-185 (817)
M2 M2sx92kljs42	Noavg 77.6¢	$8.1K	$7.1K	$-1.2K	73% 350-129 (479)
HorribleWorkCTR	Yesavg 24.2¢	$4.9K	$7.1K	+$2.1K	60% 465-309 (774)
FO forinnerpsandr1x11222	Noavg 76.6¢	$5.1K	$4.5K	-$666.46	88% 212-28 (240)
Mr-Krabs	Noavg 68¢	$4.7K	$4.4K	-$296.76	78% 574-165 (739)
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 36.7¢	$3.9K	$3.7K	-$161.19	56% 836-645 (1481)
88 881112	Noavg 63.2¢	$3.1K	$3.4K	+$164.39	38% 567-944 (1511)
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Yesavg 26.2¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$528.11	42% 1081-1477 (2558)
TR troim	Noavg 68.8¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$67.49	36% 397-691 (1088)
scottiliciousCTR	Yesavg 25.3¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$510.8	82% 945-201 (1146)
GollumGekko	Noavg 77.2¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$274.5	68% 2074-958 (3032)
JE Jest55	Noavg 77.9¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$187.67	75% 1028-338 (1366)
yen4u	Noavg 79.1¢	$1.0K	$890.82	-$165.69	86% 809-136 (945)
0X 0xbe044D601FBe89c9E87eACFa57d813A31F783C60-1767997097941	Noavg 72.9¢	$948	$884	-$83.5	76% 145-47 (192)
debased	Noavg 58¢	$644.38	$755.48	+$94.43	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
ME melganis	Noavg 57.8¢	$629.16	$721.73	+$92.57	75% 1597-541 (2138)
Zaratustra	Noavg 79¢	$360.24	$582.08	-$103	62% 351-214 (565)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 76.6¢	$789.49	$547.9	-$81.57	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
StupidMonkeyyyCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$314.68	$542.23	+$227.14	50% 147-145 (292)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 76.6¢	$594.95	$528.35	-$78.25	89% 4653-547 (5200)
StarMaster	Noavg 69¢	$491.25	$510	+$18.75	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
Udonsan	Noavg 73¢	$510.27	$475.32	-$45.44	79% 250-67 (317)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$21,304.53

Value

$19.9K

PnL

-$333.27

Record

18%

365-1640 (2005)

Both legs:

No$13,650.0968.7¢-$178.09

Yes$6,413.2132.3¢-$155.18

MEPP

Invested

$9,673.74

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$182.27

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$9,763.54

Value

$9.2K

PnL

-$590.12

Record

72%

3507-1334 (4841)

alwaysOn

Invested

$8,321.15

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$974.58

Record

77%

632-185 (817)

M2sx92kljs42

Invested

$8,122.04

Value

$7.1K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

73%

350-129 (479)

HorribleWorkCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,935.01

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

60%

465-309 (774)

forinnerpsandr1x11222

Invested

$5,051.76

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$666.46

Record

88%

212-28 (240)

Mr-Krabs

Invested

$4,667.64

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$296.76

Record

78%

574-165 (739)

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,876.8

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$161.19

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

881112

Invested

$3,118.69

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$164.39

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,884.44

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$528.11

Record

42%

1081-1477 (2558)

troim

Invested

$2,062.31

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$67.49

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

scottiliciousCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,576.85

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$510.8

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

GollumGekko

Invested

$2,032.4

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$274.5

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

Jest55

Invested

$1,460.24

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$187.67

Record

75%

1028-338 (1366)

yen4u

Invested

$1,036.86

Value

$890.82

PnL

-$165.69

Record

86%

809-136 (945)

0xbe044D601FBe89c9E87eACFa57d813A31F783C60-1767997097941

Invested

$948

Value

$884

PnL

-$83.5

Record

76%

145-47 (192)

debased

Invested

$644.38

Value

$755.48

PnL

+$94.43

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

melganis

Invested

$629.16

Value

$721.73

PnL

+$92.57

Record

75%

1597-541 (2138)

Zaratustra

Invested

$360.24

Value

$582.08

PnL

-$103

Record

62%

351-214 (565)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$789.49

Value

$547.9

PnL

-$81.57

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

StupidMonkeyyyCTR

Yes

Invested

$314.68

Value

$542.23

PnL

+$227.14

Record

50%

147-145 (292)

nonkenny90

Invested

$594.95

Value

$528.35

PnL

-$78.25

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

StarMaster

Invested

$491.25

Value

$510

PnL

+$18.75

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

Udonsan

Invested

$510.27

Value

$475.32

PnL

-$45.44

Record

79%

250-67 (317)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 36 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 33%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 33% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 10

Aligned

sharpNo 85% · 13

Aligned

ctrYes 58% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 24

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 25

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.